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Thoughts on this line....

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Thoughts on this line....

Postby Felonius_Monk » Sun May 21, 2006 12:16 pm

200PLO. I have a full stack, villain covers.

MP I get dealt QJT6ds and limp (would fold this sometimes but I hadn't played a lot of hands and was looking to see some flops. It wasn't a very aggro table preflop either).

SB (haven't seen much of him but he seems to err on the side of aggression and seems quite poor but not especially tricky) raises 3x BB. One call to me, I call also.

Flop comes Q52 rainbow, one card of each of my suits. SB leads for the pot. So far he hasn't raised PF much so I can't put him on low cards, I actually thought a high pair (KK/AA) or other strong high orientated hand (a high wrap) was most likely from PF raise. Other guy folds, I call as I think two pair would be good and lots of cards on the turn give me significant draws, plus I don't think he has a lot.

Turn brings a 9[d] which gives me the Q high flush draw, open ender, and top pair. He pots again, and I push all in over the top, a little under pot-sized.

My thinking is that I'm no worse than 40% against an overpair and could even be a slim favourite if (say) he has AA with no flush draw, I have significant fold equity as he really shouldn't be taking an overpair further here, and even if he is ahead I must have a minimum of 15 outs pretty much regardless.

Any better way to play this? I wouldn't have called flop if it wasn't heads up and I didn't have a good idea what his hand was. Calling both streets would work I guess but I think it leaves you limited options on the river. Thoughts?
The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Sun May 21, 2006 12:19 pm

Results in white:

He had AKK9 with no flush draw making me a 55:45 favourite on the turn. I hit a 6 on the river to win and precipitate much whining.
The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby Ojingo » Sun May 21, 2006 4:57 pm

Seems like a lot here depends on whether he's the type of guy who goes to the felt with AA/KK no matter what the flop is...
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Postby Aisthesis » Sun May 21, 2006 11:14 pm

I like your line all the way through.

By the way, I did some straight counting a few weeks ago, and the result was that among all 3-legged dogs, QJTX turned out to have as many nut straights as a lot of decent-looking holy wraps (since AK still gives you the nuts on top). I routinely play the hand in MP after that but would probably fold to a raise without its being ds, which I think makes it plenty good to see a flop with under the circumstances.
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