Look at the ten last times you got stacked, did you get the money in good or bad?

Sounds like a bad run, alas. Stoney's advice is very good.

Check out my latest vent post in Bad Beats - I'm down overall in 2007 I think (I don't keep records these days and I've probably only played maybe 80-odd hours this year). This is over, at a fairly conservative estimate, a bit over 20k hands. Last time but one I played I lost $700 in two pots in which (when the money went in) I was 91% and 88% favourite respectively. It sucks but alas sometimes you will get long, ugly runs in this game. I think Stoney's thoughts (separate your hands into just the big ones, and keep a track of how many you've made significant errors on and/or how many you got in with the best of it) can keep these runs in perspective. During January (when I lost about 3k) and this month (when I'm guessing I'm pushing 1k down in ~8 sessions) I've been mentally keeping a tally and I HAVE been putting it in with the best of it more often than not (ironically, last session I played, the two biggest pots I won were actually chases with the WORST of it...).

Other good tips:

1) take a break if it's pissing you off. I regularly quit playing for a couple of months these days. I don't need to play every day and if I'm not enjoying it and don't need the money, I don't consider it to be a personal affront or capitulation just to say "F it, I don't need to be doing this right now" and concentrate on other areas of my life.

2) have a look at how many all-ins you've been screwed on (loss of a pot as a decent favourite) over the period of hands, and consider how it changes your win rate. Even just a few hands over 20k can make a surprisingly big difference.

Example: Let's say over 20k hands of poker, losing at a rate of -5BB/100you've got all in 50 times (probably a conservative figure, but this is just hypothetical) in a 100BB game (as most are). Let's say, in terms of odds, you win about 60% when you go all in to a showdown (again, a reasonable figure, might be a bit higher for tighter players in weaker games), or rather, you get a 120% payoff for each wager (put in $25 and on average you make $30 back). Now, let's say you've only won 20 of those all-in hands (a reasonably poor run over 20k hands). Normally you'd win 30 out of 50, so you've lost 10 all ins compared to "normal" variance.

Those 10 all-ins are worth 200BBs each, meaning you're 2000BBs down. Over 20k hands of poker, 2000BBs are worth 10BB/100. This means you're 10BB/100 down on your "usual" expectation, just considering big pots. So, you SHOULD be winning 5BB/100 (a reasonable, if low, winrate) instead of LOSING 5BB/100.

You've gone from a solid, small winning player to a concerned losing player by simply getting the worst of it in 10 more all-in pots than you usually would, over 20k hands. Given how long it takes to play 20k hands, I think you'll agree that it's not too much of a stretch to see 10 pots lost that you'd normally pick up in this period. It really takes less than you'd think (a run of a couple of horrible sessions, or an above average number of bad ones) to skew winrate considerably over 20k hands. This is why I'm not too concerned about my recent record, and you shouldn't be either.

Another item that has always stuck with me is some advice from ATE. You don't need to flip coins in this game when people will be willing to give you a good shot at their money when you are a 80-20+ favorite.

In other words, sometimes when the correct long term play would be to push, it is ok to take the less variance route and fold. It is amazing how many times you can play "weak" in this game and still make money in the long run.

Tom

Good point too Tom, I know I've been in a few coinflips as well...... I'll try and post some hands tonight for input.....

Provided you guys don't mind looking at my battle scars and listening to war stories