$200 PLO on UB. Both have full stacks. Opponent in the hand is a regular, who has been spotted in the highest available games. I don't know whether he is a great player, but he is around for quite some time and recently has been doing well in the big game. I'm not sure what brings him to the lower stakes; either there are no good games for him or he wants a break... In a full ring he plays tight aggressive, and is not afraid to bluff big. He is only playing one table at a time most of the time, so he should have a read on me. Most likely, he perceives me as a TAG as well. We've played quite a few sessions before, although we haven't had many direct confrontations.
The hand: I get KK33 in LP, and raise to $10 after a few limpers. Opponent is the only caller. Flop comes 348 rainbow. He checks, I bet pot ($30), he checkraises pot. What do you do? Obviously, a call is going to commit you, so it's either push or fold.
Some more or less relevant thoughts:
1) he will call the preflop raise with quite a wide range of hands; we both have a full stack, he thinks I'm aggressive, so that he has some implied odds. He can have anything from AAxx to a wrap-type hand.
2) this is a typical garbage flop and he expects me to have missed completely. From his point of view, I have an overpair at best, although he should know that I raise in LP with more than just AAxx and KKxx.
3) If his checkraise is not a complete bluff, then he is either miles behind with some 2 pair hand, or miles ahead with a higher set. The only other hand I can see him make this play with is with a wrap straight draw.
How often do you think he is on a complete bluff? Do you think you are ahead enough times to make pushing +EV?
Results later.
Pieter