by Aisthesis » Fri Mar 31, 2006 2:42 am
I agree in principle with bri, although I'm not entirely averse to it against this player.
The fact that the pot is 3-way imo does strengthen your non-nut flush draw, which I'm willing to view as good here. That should give you 11 outs if you need them.
Your point about the QQ possibly being good is also a good point. However, I think having the pair in your hand is worse than hitting something on the board. Hitting something on the board gives you 9 extra outs to make 2 pair (assuming those outs don't also make your hand with a straight), whereas the QQ pair has only 2 outs to improve--and on a board like this, it's very unclear whether you would even want to hit a Q, probably not, actually.
I still generally much prefer flat calling here to the raise (what did he have, by the way?). I might plan to call him down if I hit my flush, although a paired board may also give you headaches on the river... (so, maybe raising the flush after all?).
While I can see making this move sometimes, DHD, I think your Omaha thinking is a bit HE influenced. This draw is decent, but not just huge (mainly because the flush draw isn't to the nuts--I'd be willing to pursue that anyway if I had more than a gutshot to the straight). I'd just be a bit cautious with this kind of thing, which isn't bad once in a while imo... I just wouldn't overdo it.