by Stoneburg » Thu Mar 30, 2006 7:00 am
I'm guessing it went something like this:
Higher pair is unlikely due to lack of preflop re-raise (and he would probably just call).
T with a better kicker is also unlikely since Phil hates AT.
He would slowplay TT and 66, so they're out.
This leaves
Weaker T (JT, T9...)
Middle pair (77-99)
Any 6 (76, 56)
Flushdraw
Since Phil is obviously steaming he is more likely to be bluffing or generally making an ass of himself than usual, so flush draw and middle pair likelyhood goes up. Personally my read on Phil is that if he had a middle pair or a T he would just have called.
I still think it was a bit weird and I don't like the play on either street but Barry is at least twice as smart as me and about a gazillion times the poker player I am so...
Ps. Barry agreeing to insurance was very smart. He got 1:4 instead of 1:9, very +EV.