by laynegt » Wed Apr 05, 2006 12:40 pm
yeah i was gonna say, the chances of any particular hand happening exactly the way it happened is extremely extremely extremely rare.
i get 1 in 31M for the probability of 4 players at a 4-handed table holding 4 unique pairs and then a flop of all the same rank comes.
p(4 unique pp) = C(4,2)/C(52,2)*13 * C(4,2)/C(50,2)*12 * C(4,2)/C(48,2)*11 * C(4,2)/C(46,2)*10 = ~1 in 85,000
p(crazy flop | 4 unique pp) = C(4,3)/C(44,3)*9 = 1 in 368
so p(both) = 1 in 31.4M
if you want 10-handedness, the prob increases by a factor of 5,040 (~1 in 6k); 6-handed, 360 (~1 in 85k).