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Do you push or call here? - Live Poker Forums

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Do you push or call here?

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Do you push or call here?

Postby legendary loser » Sun Feb 27, 2005 12:01 am

This is a quick summary.

I have a $47 stack at a $50 Party NL table. I raise to $4 UTG w/ AKs (hearts). Two players call me. We alll have similar stacks.

The flop is 6h 8h 3c. I lead for $9 and I'm min raised to $18. The min raise is called by the last player to act. It's back to me. Do you call or push? I'm pretty confident I'm not up against a set.
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Postby kennyg » Sun Feb 27, 2005 4:38 am

You do certainly have odds to call this bet.

I don't think your ace or king are outs though....I think you're up against a set with a min raise and a cold call behind you

This is party though so who the hell knows what they have :). I think this would be one of the few situations I would just call. Your folding equity is 0%..you're gonna get called by one of these two guys.... I probably check/fold the turn if I don't hit..unless they put a small bet out giving me great odds to call..
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Postby Mad Genius » Sun Feb 27, 2005 6:34 am

I'm allin.
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Postby kennyg » Sun Feb 27, 2005 8:26 am

MG

why?
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Postby iceman5 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 4:19 pm

Stack sizes of other players?
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Postby AA.com » Sun Feb 27, 2005 5:21 pm

I agree with Kenny. You probably have 8 hearts. At best your against a couple over pairs and have 15 outs making you a small favorite if you push. IMO its a marginal situation to play for your stack. I would call, check/fold turn.
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Postby Mad Genius » Sun Feb 27, 2005 5:51 pm

Kenny,

I'm all-in here because with the odds I'm getting (almost 2-1) he would need a set for this to be a bad all-in, and even then it's close. I'm expecting to see 99-JJ (where I'm even money) or A8 enough of the times, especially on Party, to make this all-in worthwhile. In addition, if the second guy has smaller hearts, which is entirely possible being that he smooth-called a bet and a raise, you have him dominated in the 3-way allin which he will call, giving you even better odds.
You can't call the flop because you are leaving yoruself with $25 in a $67 pot. Assume a non-heart hits and you check to the raiser, who goes all-in. Even if the third guy doesn't call you are calling $25 into a $92 pot. If you just have your heart outs it's a slightly bad call but given that he could be on one pair the call would, of course, be correct. Now let's assume that the third guy is on some draw as well and decides to call. Now you are calling $25 into a $117 pot - can you fold? I can't.
The other problem with calling the flop is that you aren't guaranteed action when the heart hits the turn. When you check the flop-raiser can check behind figuring his overpair/set might no longer be good. He may or may not pay you off on the river, but this is a situation where you probably have reverse implied odds when the heart hits the turn.
I'm not gonna do the math of which has a better EV, but I'm fairly certain that it's pushing the flop. You have anywhere between 6-15 outs and getting goods odds, especially if it's 3-way.

In the end though, you should never be forced to make decisions like this. When you play poker with real stacks (over 100BB) you have so much more room for flexibility.
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Postby Rhound50 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 5:59 pm

On the $50 party tables I am all in. Kenny I think you have been playin with decent players to much. :D At party this seem more likely to me to be someone has TPTK and someone has an over pair more often than someone having a set. IMO you most likely have 12 outs (9 flush out, 3 to your [Ah] or [Kh] with 11 outs you are almost 50/50. If you have 15 you are even money, and getting 2:1 if they both call and 1.5:1 if one folds.
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Postby legendary loser » Sun Feb 27, 2005 6:42 pm

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Postby legendary loser » Sun Feb 27, 2005 6:45 pm

I went all in on the flop for about $35 more. Both players called and the final pot was approximately $145. I did not improve and MP won with [Qc] [Qd] . I don't know what LP had, but I assume it was another overpair or flush draw.
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Postby Rhound50 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 7:25 pm

Well that sucks to lose but you made the right EV play.
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