by Mad Genius » Sun Feb 27, 2005 5:51 pm
Kenny,
I'm all-in here because with the odds I'm getting (almost 2-1) he would need a set for this to be a bad all-in, and even then it's close. I'm expecting to see 99-JJ (where I'm even money) or A8 enough of the times, especially on Party, to make this all-in worthwhile. In addition, if the second guy has smaller hearts, which is entirely possible being that he smooth-called a bet and a raise, you have him dominated in the 3-way allin which he will call, giving you even better odds.
You can't call the flop because you are leaving yoruself with $25 in a $67 pot. Assume a non-heart hits and you check to the raiser, who goes all-in. Even if the third guy doesn't call you are calling $25 into a $92 pot. If you just have your heart outs it's a slightly bad call but given that he could be on one pair the call would, of course, be correct. Now let's assume that the third guy is on some draw as well and decides to call. Now you are calling $25 into a $117 pot - can you fold? I can't.
The other problem with calling the flop is that you aren't guaranteed action when the heart hits the turn. When you check the flop-raiser can check behind figuring his overpair/set might no longer be good. He may or may not pay you off on the river, but this is a situation where you probably have reverse implied odds when the heart hits the turn.
I'm not gonna do the math of which has a better EV, but I'm fairly certain that it's pushing the flop. You have anywhere between 6-15 outs and getting goods odds, especially if it's 3-way.
In the end though, you should never be forced to make decisions like this. When you play poker with real stacks (over 100BB) you have so much more room for flexibility.