Hi-hiddly-ho, mates,
Here's a hand I played today that I think I lost about 1.5 big bets with. I'll give you the hand, followed by some analysis, and how I think I should've played it. If you think there's a better way still, let me know!
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed)
Preflop: TW is Button with , .
2 folds, MP1 =#A500AF(Other Dude)/ calls, 2 folds, TW calls, 1 fold, BB checks.
Flop: (3.33 SB) , , (3 players)
BB checks, Other Dude bets, TW raises, BB folds, Other Dude 3-bets, TW calls.
Turn: (4.66 BB) (2 players)
Other Dude bets, TW calls.
River: (6.66 BB) (2 players)
Other Dude bets, TW calls.
Final Pot: 8.66 BB
Results in white below:
Other Dude has 9d Tc (straight, king high).
TW has 8c 8d (full house, eights full of jacks).
Outcome: TW wins 8.66 BB.
Okay, obviously I'm happy with the flop, but with draws possible, I figure that raising is certainly the best move. When he 3-bets, I figure him for either top two (QJ) or the flopped straight; the fear of the straight made me back down and call, and again on the turn. Now the river comes, I've made a boat, but now I worry that maybe he did have two pair and has a better boat! So, once again, I timidly call and win a pot that wasn't as large as it should've been.
Here's a better line, in my opinion: cap the flop. Now, if he leads out on the turn, I can be 95% sure he's got the straight; if he had two pair, he'd back down and check, fearing I have the straight. So, on the turn, I can confidently bet if he checks, and call if he bets. When the river brings a jack, I now have a solid read as to whether he's got the straight or the boat, so I can raise or call accordingly.
Thoughts?
-TW