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The value in not raising aces - Live Poker Forums

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The value in not raising aces

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The value in not raising aces

Postby JDLush » Tue Apr 25, 2006 9:24 pm

Table has been pretty tight of late, this is about 40 minutes and 50 hands or so into the session. It's been folded around to the BB more than once, and I have not gone to showdown yet, taking a few pots with flop or turn bets.



Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha HI/LO Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
10 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $186.03
JDLush: $220.21
UTG+2: $38
MP1: $362.40
MP2: $218.65
MP3: $239.14
CO: $261.14
Button: $117.59
SB: $200.50
BB: $200

Pre-flop: (10 players) JDLush is UTG+1 with [3h] [9c] [Ah] [As]
UTG calls, JDLush calls, UTG+2 raises to $4, 4 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls, JDLush calls.

I see my hand and at first I'm thinking what everyone would - raise it to get heads up, but I hate my 9, and it looks like we won't be too many going to the flop....

Flop: ($19) [Kd] [Qc] [Ad] (4 players)
UTG checks, JDLush checks, UTG+2 bets $18.05, Button folds, UTG raises to $36.1, JDLush calls, UTG+2 calls all-in $15.95.

Yeah, this is one of those love/hate kinda flops. I have outs regardless of whether the str8 is out or not, but I really don't want to pay a ton to see the turn and river if possible. The short stack got pushed in so now I can play for a side pot if nothing else.

Turn: ($125.2) [6s] (2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $121, Sidepot 1: $4.2)
UTG bets $19.18, JDLush raises to $69, UTG calls.

I think his bet is weaker than Monk's willpower at a petting zoo and it smells like flush draw to me. I did the math quickly in my head and figured I can give him a little rope, but still price him out to the point that he is making a mistake. I think I should have bet more here, but didn't really want to discourage a call. The made str8 bets much harder on a blank turn like that, so I have got to be good here unless he has the made str8 with flush redraw, and I have outs against that anyway.

River: ($263.2) [Qh] (2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $121, Sidepot 1: $142.2)
UTG bets $30.54, JDLush raises to $80, UTG calls all-in $46.39.
Uncalled bets: $3.07 returned to JDLush.

Gin. If he has QQ then oh well. After seeing the hands I really wish the shortstack had rebought before the hand was dealt. :D

Results:
Final pot: $417.06
JDLush shows 3h 9c Ah As
UTG+2 doesn't show Ac Qs 5c 2s
UTG doesn't show 6d Kh Kc Jc

Comments? Would you consider this FPS, a lucky changeup, weaktight?

FWIW, about 20 hands later I limp with AA4Q and spike an ace on the turn. I probably overbet it that time since the villain folded, but I may just pull that play from the back pocket more often...
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Postby januarymute » Wed Apr 26, 2006 11:25 am

Limping aces has merit, but I don't think this is a good example... If the turn gets bet full-pot, or if the flop action catches you between two broadway's and a flush draw or something, do you still post this hand?

It can be valuable to have disguised top set by limped aces, but I think it's better to reraise preflop here and then lead every street that you still have customers. If you're in the blinds and only get limpers to this AA, that would be a reasonable time to just complete or check your option; also, if you just limp from EP and nobody raises, you should be OK with that. But to limp and pass up on the reraise with a strong AA (2nd NL draw & a suit to an ace) is generally suboptimal IMO.
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Postby Kuso » Wed Apr 26, 2006 12:10 pm

i would actually hate being in this position.

if you reraise pf, it doesn't really have a lot of punch due to the fact that UTG+2 didn't raise the pot PF. what's worse is that you pretty much define your hand. if i were a villain in the hand, i would call with a wide range being fairly certain that i was up against AA, and i would know what I needed to beat (barring your side cards hitting the flop hard).

anyway, the lack of punch to the reraise and the fact that you have crappy position would pretty much make it a coin flop for me. i'd look at the stats and see who else was in the hand. ugh, still, i don't know.

anyway, as mute points out, you could be drawing thin to a boat on the flop... you really have no idea where you're at.
Last edited by Kuso on Wed Apr 26, 2006 12:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
wwcrd?

"that basically sums up poker for me - 12" needle in the testicle." <nutkick> mvp
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Postby JDLush » Wed Apr 26, 2006 12:15 pm

Thx JM. AALoHi in EP is the hand that gives me the most headache lately in that it seems to be a 'win a little, lose a lot' kind of hand. I have been pretty much 50/50 between raising and limping (from EP to MP) but probably should be more like 75/25 I guess. In late position it's a pot bet/raise/reraise every time, but I tend to do that with a lot of hands that are much weaker than this, so hopefully the more observant opponents won't automatically assume AA.

If this was AA34 or AA35 then it's a raise from anywhere as well. Probably the same for any AA3Lo.

On the flop am I right to try and keep the pot manageable, or should I be pushing regardless? I figured it the str8 is out and he wants to let me see a cheap turn then I should, and I can't price a flush draw out either way. This would generally be how I'd play top set on any draw heavy board most of the time.

I'm not sure if I post the hand or not if I had folded to a ton of action before showdown. If I did and it turns out I missed making a killing I'd probably be posting something like 'Limping Aces is for P*ssies!!!". :D
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