by Eaglesfan » Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:33 pm
Well I'll comment on the hand since Palman personally asked for me to comment. By the way, I just wrote up a big long response to this and lost it all because Internet explorer got messed up cuz of party... But I'll take the time out to write it again.
First of all, you can analyze this hand as much as you want, but without having played all the hands of this crazy session you really won't be able to understand why I did this. The session was crazy and this hand was just another hand adding to it, all the previous hands in the session had a bigger effect on my thoughts than anything. Anyway, here we go.
My raise before the flop means absolutely nothing here, all it does when me and Palman are in a hand together is make a bigger pot for us to fight over, it also gives me the "lead" in the hand, which really means nothing when we go at it because he knows that I know that he knows I have the lead and that "i know he knows" game results in nothing but taking away the "lead". By the way, I'll say it now, sometimes when im writing I can't really explain fully what I'm thinking, so Sorry in advance if its confusing. Now he bets out on the flop hard and I just don't think he has anything so I just call here, against your average good player, yes I said your average good player, I'm talking about good players that aren't really good player, If I thought he was bluffing I would just check-raise the flop and take the pot from him. But, I'm out of position against Palman with still 2 betting rounds to go. If I raise here I'll have to bet hard on the turn and the river just to prevent him from bluffing me, and he still might bluff. Its just too early to pull the trigger being out of position against a bluffing machine that will take every opportunity to bluff me. Now on the turn I still think he's bluffing and JUST call his bet again. I can't remember exactly why I thought he was bluffing, I just remember thinking back to all the hands we already played together and making some kind of read. Guess it was dead wrong Palman fooled me.
But, this is where controversy strikes, if I thought he had nothing on the turn why not just raise him then and get it all done with?
The ultimate problem when it comes down to it was I was going to be out of position on the river in a tough spot. There was now a flush draw on the board as well. This flush draw kind of scared me more than it should have. I thought for a second if he has a flush draw he's going to call my turn raise pretty much no matter how big of a raise I make, he'll be getting 2:1 pretty much no matter what raise I make and he will figure in implied odds and will also call planning to bluff the pot down on the river when I show weakness (and I would show weakness) which would also make the odds favorable to him. He could even call my raise with nothing and plan to bluff the river when the third club hits or he could read me for weak with this turn check-raise and call planning to bluff the river. No matter what he had I knew I would be facing a big bet on the river because he wouldn't miss an opportunity at a bluff. So this is what made me jsut call, knowing I'd be put in a real tough spot on the river after I checked to him showing weakness.
Thinking back a big check-raise on the turn was probably the best option. If I check-raised BIG he wouldn't be able to call with nothing or something marginal and plan to bluff me out on the river because I would be making it too expensive, I'd be putting him to the test on the turn instead of the river but just didnt think to do it during the hand. I would have had to raised it up pretty just big to be sure he wasn't going to call and bluff me on the river.
On the river I think the call I made was fine. He either had a monster or absolutely nothing and throughout the hand I thought he had nothing so I went with my read and called. It was the wrong call but oh well, I showed my AJ to everyone and laughed. I stand behind my play and don't care if any amateurs say its the stupidest call they've ever seen, there just not smart enough to realize it had some justification.
Throughout all our hands there was a lot of he knows that i know that he knows games and it all got really complicated, but I loved it even though I ended up losing. It was a pretty good exercise in bluffing and re-bluffing and re-re-bluffing and mental thought processes of he knows that i know that he knows. Palman is one tough cookie to play NL against I'll tell you that.
P.S. Last night I won the party 100$ 12;00 Multi for $11,750!! haahaaaaaaaaa