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AQ with flush draw - Live Poker Forums

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AQ with flush draw

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AQ with flush draw

Postby iceman5 » Sat Mar 05, 2005 10:55 am

$2/$4 NL

MP limps (hes not very good and has $230. I have him covered and raise to $16 in the cutoff with [Ad][Qc]. He calls and we're heads up to the flop.

The pot is $38. The flop comes [Ac][8c][4c]. He checks and I bet $28. He calls.

Pot is $94. The turn is the [6h]. He checks, I bet $50. He calls.

Pot is $194. The river is the [6c]. There are 4 clubs and the board is paired. he checks and I do what? He has about $135 left.
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Postby slaz13 » Sat Mar 05, 2005 11:55 am

I would put him all in. He hasn't shown any aggression yet so the odds that he had a set and filled up are slim. Given that, you have the queen and only the king beats you. Also he has called all the way so far, so I think if he is going to call a smaller bet on the river, he will probably call an all-in one too. Just my thoughts.
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Postby Sunbob » Sun Mar 06, 2005 1:36 am

Well, with the full understanding that I got my butt kicked in an MTT and a SnG tonight, my reads are way off tonight. But - I would be concerned that has the [Kc] , either KK or KJ. How bad do you think he is? Does he call you down with less than Kc?

I would check it down figuring that the only way he calls my bet on the river is if he has me beat and if that is the case he has trapped me. So with the chance of winning more money low and the chance of losing more money high - I check and showdown.
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Postby palman » Sun Mar 06, 2005 1:50 am

Bet about 60. Rarely do people draw to the K high flush and then check on the river. I can't think of many hands he could have that would beat you. He'd bet the river with a boat, and the K high flush draw. There are a variety of hands a bad player will call you down with, (he could call you down with a lower club hoping you were on the ace) Since there's a strong chance he was calling with a non-nut flush I don't think he'll fold for 60 once he gets there. If he's a bad player he'll be more concerned with pot odds than the fact that you are clearly hoping he has a weak club and are pricing him in.

The river check-raise is a rare enough move that I wouldn't be overly weary of it. If he has any history of river check-raising a strong hand though I might be inclined to check. Without that knowledge though, I value bet.
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Postby iceman5 » Sun Mar 06, 2005 8:47 am

The reason I posted this was that I believe Im too passive at the river. I check behind too much. Ive been working on this lately, but the last couple times I bet the river when I had a gut feeling not too, I got riased or check raised and lost.

I checked behind this time. I won, but didnt see what he had so I dont know if he wouldve called a bet or not, but Im pretty sure he wouldve after thinking about it more.
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Postby kennyg » Sun Mar 06, 2005 9:13 am

I don't think you're gonna get a call in this situation unless you bet small. Is it really worth that bet if you then get checkraised allin and have to make a decison?I'm not sure it is.
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Postby palman » Sun Mar 06, 2005 10:28 am

If he bets 60, he has to call the player's re-raise to 120 due to pot odds.

Thus, if that's the case, in order for it to be an unprofitible bet, the liklihood that he will check-raise has to be more than 50% of the chances that he will call with a worse hand.

For example, if he calls with a worse hand 50% of the time, he'd have to check-raise 25% of the time for it to be an even money bet.

The size of the bet is directly proportional to this relationship. If you make it $120, then the ratio goes from 2:1 to 1:1.....the liklihood that he'll call with a worse hand just has to be higher than the liklihood that he was trapping you. I happen to think that betting both $60 and $120 is profitible here.... but it is very difficult to ascertain which is more profitible of the two options.

If you're going to lay down to a re-raise of $60, then a whole new set of problems arises.
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Postby Rhound50 » Sun Mar 06, 2005 1:22 pm

Ice I really like your check here. What is this guy going to call with??? He isnt going to call a decent sized bet with anything that doesnt have you beat. Plus if you get check raised all-in you have to throw it away. To much risk of not getting to showdown and to little reward of getting paid off.

I really dont like Slaz's idea of going all in. If you are going to do this you might as well have 23 off, because you are pretty much on a pure bluff. You get the same result out of checking with much less risk.
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Postby bobby » Sun Mar 06, 2005 1:56 pm

This a great situation for me to read and think--------My immediate response would be to go all in...Why?? Because Ice says the guy "wasn't too good" and so if that's the case, would he not call off the rest of the chips with some rag 2 pair or a worse flush? Maybe at these levels, that does't happen,..Help me out here...
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Postby k3nt » Mon Mar 07, 2005 10:46 am

What kind of a not-good player is he? Is he just a total calling station? In that case, I probably check behind as well or bet a smallish amount on the river, fearing that he has a set that turned into a boat and has no idea how to play it. If he's a calling station I'm not worried about a river check-raise.

If he's some other kind of bad player, well, depends on what kind of bad player he is....
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Postby Jav » Mon Mar 07, 2005 4:10 pm

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Postby Suhleafs » Mon Mar 07, 2005 5:06 pm

Maybe this is why I'm not killing games.

I would for sure check behind. Too many hands beat me, and even a bad player will not call and pay me off with a [Jc] .
Some will, but are you willing to lose $120 and risk him having the [Kc]?

Not me that's for sure.
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Postby eliteprodigy » Mon Mar 07, 2005 10:41 pm

I check behind
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Postby palman » Tue Mar 08, 2005 7:49 am

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Postby Gregor » Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:05 am

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