Texas Hold'em Fixed Limit EUR 2/4 - Table "Stockholm"

Here is a hand I played earlier today. I will leave out my cards as well as my opponents and see if you can analyze your way through what each of us likely holds given the action. I will give you my thoughts on the play later.

Opponent (edit with ed's numbers: VIP 18%, PFR 8% Overall Aggression: < 1.0
Me: Loose cannon, maniacal blind defending Venezuelan donk

Players(max 10):
shieke (EUR 321.25 in seat 1)
gmfmd1 (EUR 62.00 in seat 2)
pavn66 (EUR 103.50 in seat 3)
Mega_Tilt (EUR 60.50 in seat 4)
Elrodri (EUR 105.00 in seat 5)
jonski (EUR 88.00 in seat 6)
Majestyk6 (EUR 113.50 in seat 7)
J-La (EUR 89.00 in seat 8)
rankki (EUR 36.50 in seat 9)
Monkeyp (EUR 91.00 in seat 10)

Dealer: shieke
Small Blind: gmfmd1 (1.00)
Big Blind: pavn66 (2.00)

majestyk6 was dealt: XX

Mega_Tilt Fold
Elrodri Fold
jonski Fold
Majestyk6 Raise (4.00)
J-La Fold
rankki Fold
Monkeyp Fold
shieke Fold
gmfmd1 Fold
pavn66 Call (2.00)

Flop - -

pavn66 Bet (2.00)
Majestyk6 Raise (4.00)
pavn66 Raise (4.00)
Majestyk6 Raise (4.00)
pavn66 Call (2.00)

Turn - - -

pavn66 Bet (4.00)
Majestyk6 Call (4.00)

River - - - -

pavn66 Bet (4.00)
Majestyk6 Call (4.00)

pavn66 shows: X - X
Majestyk6 shows: X - X

Someone wins: EUR 39.00
Rake: EUR 0.50

Looks like overpair vs set.

Piers = Big Pair, prob. KK. Eurodonk=A7s in diamonds. River saves Eurodonk.

* I have 353 hands on eurodonk. I cheated and looked at my PT (where he is 18/8/<1).

When playing solid, tricky opponents that you have spent quite a bit of time playing against it is sometimes difficult to get a great read on them and more often than not whoever wins the particular battles on a given session or night has the benefit of better cards, position or other circumstances. I have played many hands against MK and Xas and I respect their games very much as they are indeed tricky, solid players that can and do change up their plays against me as I try to do against them but against the other 99.99% of the guys I play against I don't give them much credit toward trying to pull off some tricky play. I am sure some of them do but until I have enough history with them I put them into a straightforward type of player and try to use both PT stats and just watching them to get a read on what type of player they are and what they are capable of doing. When I am multitabling I am positive I lose alot of edge in doing this but in this case I was only playing the one table so was able to better analyze the situation.

The guy in this hand hadn't been particularly active thus far in doing anything crazy/stupid but was very tight or just getting alot of shitty cards. He didn't strike me to be the kind of player to defend his blind with any two so right off I suspected that he probably had a pretty decent hand. When that flop came down and he led into me that didn't really jive with what normally happens in this type of situation given this type of opponent and when something doesn't fit the mold my bullshit radar goes off pretty quickly. Of course he could have some holding like A9 or perhaps any pair from 88-JJ but I think that with the majority of those hands he would have went for a CR here. Against nearly all opponents it would be safe to eliminate the bigger pairs and sets here as well as him having flopped two pair.

I raised here in an attempt to get to see the next two cards for free if needed (I had by the way). When greeted by that three bet I was not very happy as I figured he had 1010-QQ. I could either call getting 9.5:1 but then would be faced with calling a turn bet getting only 6.25:1 drawing to what I believed were still 6 live outs (ca. 6.8:1 so not enough to justify a call) but if I capped it off that would likely get me to the river in most cases for 2.00 more instead of 4.00 and as a biproduct if the guy led into me again I would have the odds to call for the river if my read was correct. I thought for sure the guy would check the turn after I had raised preflop and proceeded to cap it off against him on the flop on this ragged board even though he held an overpair.

When he led into me again on the turn that just didn't fit with acceptable protocol for what he could possibly have here. When he doesn't reraise me preflop I can pretty safely throw out him having AA or KK here and I have two of those cards as well but with me raising preflop and then proceeding to cap it off on the flop It would take a daring player to lead back into me on the turn holding QQ-1010 here and from my read on him he just wasn't that type of a player and if he had held a set the VAST, VAST majority of players are not going to play the hand the way he did on the flop. So what does that leave that fits this guys resume, in my opinion two big suited diamonds, most likely AJ or AQ. He bet the river and showed down and I won the pot with AK high. If he would have checked the turn and bet the river following my turn check I would have had a very difficult time calling that bet after being three bet on the flop but with his bet on the turn after my cap I was almost positive of what he held.

Pot manipulation, hand reading and an ability to recognize when something just doesn't jive in the play of a hand are extremely important components in fully maximizing your abilities in limit holdem and poker in general. I only wish I had close to the mental capacity to break down 60-80 players while multitabling.

It sucks when you can't do what Piers can do. I'm rereading his post again and again so I can commit it to memory.