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Can I get away from this? - Live Poker Forums

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Can I get away from this?

Postby Aisthesis » Mon May 22, 2006 4:42 pm

I don't think KJ97 is by any means a "must-play" hand, but I don't really have any objection to it in LP. Anyhow, once I've seen the flop, can I get away from this or is the result just "one of those things"?

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $168.80
UTG+1: $66.20
MP1: $91.60
MP2: $104.55
MP3: $36.50
Aisthesis: $169.85
Button: $10.35
SB: $69.50
BB: $88.70

Pre-flop: (9 players) Aisthesis is CO with [Kc] [7h] [Jc] [9s]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Aisthesis calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: [Qs] [3d] [Th] ($8, 8 players)
SB checks, BB bets $3, UTG raises to $11, 2 folds, MP3 raises all-in $35.5, Aisthesis calls, 3 folds, UTG raises to $152.6, Aisthesis raises all-in $168.85, UTG calls all-in $15.2.
Uncalled bets: $1.05 returned to Aisthesis.

Turn: [3s] ($382.1, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $117.5, Sidepot 1: $264.6)


River: [Js] ($382.1, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $117.5, Sidepot 1: $264.6)


Results:
Final pot: $382.1

P.S.: I still can't get this converter to show the results. Any suggestions? (I checked the box "show results" but it still doesn't do it).

Anyhow, deep stack has Qc Qd 5d 7s. Short-stack has Td 7c Tc 9d.
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Mon May 22, 2006 4:56 pm

Time to lay down. If we assume a relatively low moron count AKJ is a very high possibility and you're smoked in that instance. Slightly loose play and a bit lucky to find the hands against you that you did IMO. At the very least SURELY one of the other 3 players advancing money in this pot must have KJ.

Any reads on anybody here?
The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby Aisthesis » Mon May 22, 2006 5:14 pm

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Postby Aisthesis » Mon May 22, 2006 5:27 pm

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Postby januarymute » Mon May 22, 2006 5:35 pm

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Postby Aisthesis » Mon May 22, 2006 5:51 pm

Assuming BB has KJ32 (BB has a random hand, so I think there's no reason to assume anything better than that), I get the following running it through the odds calculator:

I win: 24.05% and split 27.27%
Deep stack wins: 42.42% (actually goes down a bit)
BB wins: 0.38%, splits 26.52%
Short-stack wins: 5.87%

I'm not sure about this, because I did think BB would fold here, as he did. I'm also assuming the splits are almost all with BB (not sure about the extra 1%, but that doesn't really matter).

While I really am not enthusiastic about calling for stack in situations like this (there are typically just better spots at these tables--i.e., ones with higher degrees of certainty in big pots), it still seems like even if BB calls, we split the 2 other stacks' money roughly 25% of the time, and I win outright another 25%, which should be enough to justify the call, given the fact that I'm the only one who has a shot at the $90 side-pot of the QQ hand.

If BB folds his hand and has only the function of taking away some of my outs, it looks to me like I'm still actually ahead of the set here.

I dunno, Monk, it's a LOT of outs to be laying down here imo. I would certainly have liked to see the turn before getting all my chips in because I knew a paired board would kill me, and it's certainly a high-variance call, but it looks to me like on most realistic scenarios I'm actually a little bit ahead of QQ (?) on the flop.
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Postby Aisthesis » Mon May 22, 2006 6:10 pm

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Postby Felonius_Monk » Mon May 22, 2006 6:43 pm

Last edited by Felonius_Monk on Mon May 22, 2006 7:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Mon May 22, 2006 7:04 pm

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby Aisthesis » Mon May 22, 2006 7:11 pm

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Postby Felonius_Monk » Mon May 22, 2006 7:20 pm

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby Aisthesis » Mon May 22, 2006 11:32 pm

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