Just AJ's post about his A22Qds tourney hand and recently reading Michael Cappelletti's excellent "How to win at omaha high low poker" got me thinking about the makeup of O8 hands and how low draws can vary significantly in their power.

A22Qds is a typical "pulling" hand that wants a lot of players in the pot; it's main feature is A2 (which, in a multiway pot, may well be the only A2 out there and thus the best, but by no means necessarily the winning, low draw) but it also plays well in a multiway pot (ESPECIALLY in limit) for high, when you have odds to chase either flush draw (the Q high draw would be good enough to chase high if there's also a low draw out, you migh consider looking at another card in certain spots even if only one low hits the flop; you will still make low a bit over 10% of the time and a Q high flush might be good in a short handed pot).

However, it's surprising how much BETTER hands of this type play in BOTH pulling AND pushing situations (spots where you're wanting callers in, or wanting to play the hand in a strong heads up spot, like in AJ's tourney hand) IF you add an extra feature... another single (strong) low card. I've gone with a 4 as a decent example, changing A22Qds to A24Qds. They look the same, smell the same, but the third low card invests the latter hand with so much more power in a typical game AND gives you more options.

Consider a pulling situation - here there are multiple players in the pot, you flop two low cards with nothing much for high (maybe a couple of backdoor flush draws or something that will add maybe 5-10% chance of taking high).... With the A22Qds, you have a 60% chance of completing low. With 4 players in (classic pulling spot), you're drawing to a 60% chance of winning 50% of the money that goes in; or rather, you're drawing to about 30% of the equity in the pot. Add in the possibility that you might be quartered for low and you're drawing to 15% of said equity. Add in the likelihood that there's a few more low cards out there (it is a multiway pot after all) and the equity may be reduced. With your chances of backing into high adding a few % to your overall chances, calling is generally correct here but in reality, even with the best low draw around and a multiway pot (a classic pulling situation) you may be getting a very slender return on each bet you invest.

Now, let's look at the same situation with the A24Qds hand. Now, instead of 60% you have a 75% chance of completing a low (aces and 2s will now not counterfeit your low draw). In reality, there is a good chance that someone out there has either A3 or 23 in hand and thus all your low draws are probably not live but at least one of the counterfeiting cards (2 or A) will likely give you the low, and in the case of an ace could even back you into high, say, if there's a Q present (another scant few % equity on your bets). Also, of the boards that bring two low cards, a significant percentage of them will include a 3 which gives you an uncounterfeitable low draw (the 4 is insurance against a counterfeit). Add to the fact that 3 of the live low drawing boards (35, 36 and 56) give you a gutshot or wrap straight draw (and thus a chance at a scoop which is a MAJOR addition of value, as much as 5-10% depending on your opponents' holdings) and you can see how much additional value that 4 gives your hand in exactly the same situation. Although 75% may be a hopeful figure for drawing the low end of the pot, add in the extra high potential of the 24 combo and it may be reasonably accurate. In that case, you're drawing to 75% chance of hitting 50% of the pot, or 37.5% of the equity on the table. This allows you not only to call in a situation where you're getting more for your money BUT might allow you to make a raise without crippling yourself (especially if you have some high equity) which may remove any A3 hands from the equation, further promoting your low draws. In a 3-way hand against two high holdings you are likely to hold as much as 45% of the pot equity (which is a great spot to be in) but more importantly if there IS another A2 hand out, plus a big high hand (e.g. a top set), you have still got 30% or so of the pot equity which makes calling or even raising fairly undamaging. Without the 4, your equity drops to 20% in this situation and you're taking the worst of it by playing on.

The same can be said of pushing situations, like in AJ's tournament hand. The addition of a third prime (A-5) low card or even in some cases something like a 6 in a heads up coup or a very short handed pot can make the hand far easier to push with, bullying opponents while you have significant pot equity and forcing folds, or getting heads up in a much stronger position than with a lone A2.

If in a heads up situation the board comes with 2 low cards and your opponent holds top set with the A22Qds hand, you own 37% of the pot equity or so with your low draws and two backdoor flush draws. You lose about 2% equity for each flush draw you remove. If your opponent has high tied up, and a couple of low cards to boot (even dreadful ones), then all of a sudden your counterfeitable low draw owns less than 30% of the equity in the pot, and it becomes a pretty poor move to be playing this hand out in a pot limit game, and a fairly unprofitable one to be doing so even in a limit situation, unless the pot is large. HOWEVER, add in that A24Qds combo, even with NO draw to high, and watch your equity JUMP by a full 10%!!!! When you're playing a pot where you stand to win about 30% of the money in there or less each time it's played out, 10% either way is huge in value terms, and turns a marginal situation into an easy call (in limit) or a spot where you could try to PUSH in pot limit to elicit a fold, knowing that if he takes you all in that you still have a shot at it. In fact, you could be as good as 50:50 against a high set here if he has no low draw and you have a live gutshot with your 2-4 and a couple of backdoors for high. Throw in the best case scenario with a low draw (that you also have a wheel wrap and two backdoor flush draws) and all of a sudden you're a fairly solid favourite (60% of the pot equity) and will only actually bust out about 20% of the time if you move all in.

A third low card in A2-type hands with no major high features after the flop can change the texture of your hand considerably, giving you more options such as allowing you to drive the betting with a low draw and minimal high equity in a limit game, or make big semi-bluffs in a pot limit situation. It also gives you better odds to chase the money that's already in the pot both in multiway and shorthanded pots.

This, and some other O8 ideas, are things I need to focus on at the moment because I've been having very mixed results of late in the limit games I play in; I think I need to tighten up and get away from these marginal spots and start to concentrate more on waiting for big scooping hands. Sooner or later the results will come!

Monk
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