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The littlest set...

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The littlest set...

Postby Smokin'Al » Sat Mar 12, 2005 12:44 pm

Who folds this one?

200NL on PokerStars. I limp from MP with [2d][2c] after UTG limps (LA-P, $179). The blinds both join in. BB is sLA-A and has $250. I have them both covered with $295.

I'd played one pot with UTG, where he min-raised me before the flop with TT (I re-raised), check-raised a pot bet with an overpair on the flop (I called), led the turn (I called), and checked the river (still with an overpair). I've not paid much attention to BB, but him and UTG were bickering about how bad the other was when I joined the table.

The flop comes in [4h][Jd][2h] with 4 players and an $8 pot, giving me bottom set.

Here's where things get interesting... SB leads out for $4. BB raises to $16. UTG smooth calls. It's quite an unthreatening board, so I'm slightly worried here ... I raise to $60 (any other ideas?).

SB folds. BB quickly raises to $104, and UTG calls again! There's $280 in the pot, it's $40 to me. I have ~$235 behind before calling (BB has $150 left, UTG $75).

What's your plan for the rest of the hand?
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Postby Kalle » Sat Mar 12, 2005 2:29 pm

Very interesting hand. I don’t think I’m able to fold this one. There are too many hands you’re ahead of: Jxh, J4, J2, 42, A3h, A5h, 53h. I think BB has a made hand and UTG has a draw. But I could be wrong - some players like to slowplay sets and UTG is passive postflop. But JJ would be unlikely since they both are aggressive preflop.

My plan is to call the reraise and get it all in on turn on a non-heart. I don’t think there is any folding equity and it gives me an opportunity to get away from the hand. Plus flush draws get incorrect odds to call on turn. But since you posted this hand, you probably lost to a set.
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Postby Smokin'Al » Sat Mar 12, 2005 2:48 pm

Good post Kalle - lots of things I hadn't thought of ...

Obviously none of this entered my head during the hand, but if UTG is drawing then he will likely have odds to draw on the a non-pairing turn (or thereabouts: he ends up calling $75 to win $400, 5:1 odds). Similarly, I have to draw to a boat if a heart falls.

So I reckon I should move in on the flop, (i) to make sure UTG doesn't get away from a paired turn, (ii) if I am ahead of BB and a heart falls he may fold (and if I'm behind there's no point in bluffing a better hand since UTG will take the pot anyway).
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Postby Kalle » Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:32 pm

I think you are right. It's better to move in on flop because UTG doesnt have much left. But I would like to hear what some of the other posters say about this hand.
And by the way, I also play 1/2 at stars and we played at the same table for a while today
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Postby iceman5 » Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:40 pm

No question about this one. It push all in or fold now.

Personally I would push all in. UTG is just calling everything which leads me to believe he doesnt have a higher set.

The BB could have anything from a higher set to AJ to 2 pair. Im willing to go to the felt here. Im all in.

Results?
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Postby k3nt » Sat Mar 12, 2005 3:45 pm

I like the push on the flop, myself. Only hand that's ahead of you is 44, assuming JJ would have been raised. I bet BB has two pair and UTG has the flush draw.
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Postby Smokin'Al » Sat Mar 12, 2005 6:14 pm

I pushed, having a strong feeling that BB had 44. BB and UTG both called. Turn was a 4, which came as something as a relief. River blanked off.

BB showed [Js][2s] and UTG mucked [Ah][Th].

An illustration that you shouldn't fear "monsters under the bed". To be fair, most people called their hands (it felt less clear in the heat of the moment).

If BB and UTG had been UTG and UTG+1 (or the pot had been raised, ie J2/J4 were out the question), would anyone have folded then?

Kalle, what's your screenname on Stars? I'm worried now you were on the table on which I was playing monkey-LAG :)
[EDIT] Is it Kallex? You were sitting on a whopping stack...
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