Hi all...

Seems I'm tanking a little w/ my thinking, and all my posts seem to be "am I just unlucky, or...", but here goes another one.... This guy was pretty new to the table... I was holding my own, when I was dealt the dreaded AA... I was bitching in a previous post about how no one would call my AA, so of course a guy calls it, and I get this horror show of a flop... I didn't have any kind of read on this guy, except that he had recently sat down, and hadn't played a hand yet... I was feelin good to the turn, then couldn't tell if this guy had a boat or had giant brass ones... I think I probably should have called just because I was pretty pot committed, but I kinda choked... Not sure if we're supposed to show the results, so I'll put them in a different color if I can...

Hand #4843534-3474 at Donora (No Limit Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 14/Mar/05 01:41:51

MVPSPORTS is at seat 0 with $174.60.
allmar is at seat 1 with $114.40.
biglee103 is at seat 2 with $98.05.
Deeman is at seat 3 with $188.60.
teufel689 is at seat 4 with $74.25.
palani is at seat 7 with $113.05.
Vex is at seat 8 with $228.50.
Optime is at seat 9 with $109.75.
The button is at seat 7.

Vex posts the small blind of $1.
Optime posts the big blind of $2.

MVPSPORTS: As Ah
allmar: -- --
biglee103: -- --
Deeman: -- --
teufel689: -- --
palani: -- --
Vex: -- --
Optime: -- --

Pre-flop:

MVPSPORTS raises to $7. allmar folds. biglee103
folds. Deeman folds. teufel689 folds. palani
folds. Vex folds. Optime calls.

Flop (board: 4h 4d 9d):

Optime checks. MVPSPORTS bets $15. Optime calls.


Turn (board: 4h 4d 9d 9s):

Optime checks. MVPSPORTS bets $45. Optime goes
all-in for $87.75.


MVPSPORTS folds, showing As Ah.
Optime is returned $42.75 (uncalled).

Optime opts to show Js Jh.
Optime has Js Jh 4h 9d 9s: two pair, jacks and nines.


Hand #4843534-3474 Summary:

$3 is raked from a pot of $135.
Optime wins $132.

By betting $45 at him you are now pot committed and you have to call. You only have to call 42.75 more and the pot is going to be around $220 you only have win this hand 1 out of 4 times to make this a positive EV play. This is a definate call.

I kinda figured that after, but at the moment, he really threw me with that raise... I was VERY shaky... but youre right.. I think I should have called...

Oh well you live and learn.

I was thinking when he moved over the top he probably had an overpair to what was on the board; certainly, he has it often enough (like one time in 4) that your call will be +ve EV. I would be pretty pissed if he had A9 and crapped on you with his two outer.

MVP, thats an easy call and thats a great board for you with AA.

The biggest worry when you have AA is that the opponent has a set, but when the board pairs (or double pairs in this case) there are that many less cards for him to have a set of. In other words when the flop is 944, the odds drop that he has 44 and theres only one other card (the 9), so his odds of having a set are lower than they would be if the flop was J85 where he could have JJ, 88, or 55.

When the board double pairs the 9, only 99 or 44 beats you. I'll take my chances that he doesnt have quads every time.

Besides the pot was too big and your odds were too good to not call. If you call that every time, he has to have quads 1 time in 4 and you still break even. Believe me he wont have quads that often there. The way he played it, I would say theres not a snowballs chance in hell that he has quads.

For anyone reading this post who thinks that luck is a huge factor in NL holdem, this is a great illustration of why skill plays the overwhelming part and luck is only a minor short term factor.

You lost $67 on this hand, I wouldve won $111. Thats a HUGE difference and will be magnified over time in other similiar hands and this is what makes the difference in a decent, good and great player. Im not saying that to brag. Im just showing the point that
eveyone will get the same cards over the long haul and the big winners are the ones who maximize their good cards and minimize their losses on their 2nd best hands.

Dont worry, you will get better over time and recognize these situations. Stick around here and you'll be getting better quickly.

By the way, raise more than $7 with AA preflop. Theres nothing worse than getting 5 callers and being out of position with AA.

You should absolutely check behind on the turn since you don't know this player. On the turn you don't have enough information to decide whether he is playing a pocket pair, diamonds, or a hand containing a 4 or a 9. This is most likely one of those situations where you are either way ahead or way behind, and since you don't have that strong of a hand there is really no reason to bet since most of the time you will only get called when you are beat. Check behind and take the cheap showdown if possible.

Having said that, I would probably call his allin. You really pot-committed yourself as Rhound said, and even though I'll be expecting to see the boat more often than not, I think over the long run he will be bluffing/semibluffing with a worse hand enough times to make it profitable, in addition to giving you more information about the player.

MG, I rarely disagree with you, but I do here. I think you can value bet that turn every time. He only beats you with quads. The guy either has TT, JJ, QQ KK or a flush draw (or quads).

I bet 3/4 pot here and call the all in with no hesitation.


Let me rephrase that. Any 9 or 4 beats you also, but I dont believe he has one. I would be more sure if you had raised more than $7 preflop though.

MG... If you just hit a nut boat, and your opponent keeps betting into you, isn't the right play to keep checking and calling my bets? I didn't know anything about the villian, because he had just sat down w/ that amount of money... he hadn't really played any hands. As for my play, as all of the posts I've put up here since I registered are crappo, I guess I'm not on the greatest swing here. I think that he knew I didn't have anything, and if I would've checked the turn, I would've been caught in the same problem at the river if he went all-in again.

MVP: If you check behind on the turn, though, the guy has to have serious guts to go all-in on the river without a 9 or a 4 in his hand. I bet he makes a smaller bet, if any at all.

Also, if a guy sits down with about half the max buy-in (or less), I immediately make a note of it. It doesn't necessarily prove anything, but it often means he's either not a serious player or is playing above his bankroll. If you're not in for the full buy-in, you're missing the chance to play all three streets properly, and you're also missing out on the chance to really make some money when you hit a big hand. To my mind at least, it shows you're scared to lose, or a little bit ignorant, or both.

I would check on the turn here like MG stated.

If you have the better hand you get him to bet the river....if you have the losing hand you save a lot of money.

So if I check the turn, he bets $30 thinking he has the lead, and I call and win a pretty good pot instead of folding a giant one... That sounds a little more my speed than calling the allin... You would agree though that if he goes allin on the river, then I should fold?

K3nt... I couldn't agree w/ you more about a shortstack, cause I used to be him. I would like the action of a 1/2 or 2/4 NL, but was too afraid of losing my a**. Sort of unlucky for me, as my recent play has indicated, I have completely lost that fear... I'm not sure how bad of a player he was though... He sure bluffed the hell out of me... Maybe, as you put it, I'm still "a little bit ignorant..."