Ok this hand is more weird than anything.
I open raise with and get raised by a player in LP. He's been semi-tight so I'm assuming Aces, Kings, Queens, or AK
Anyway, I call, hoping to set up. Flop comes down which is just ugly.So I decide to check-raise all in, and he calls and shows aces, I quad up on fifth and take it down.
But after the hand I started thinking.
If the only hands he has here are Aces, Kings, Queens, and AK, then I'm only ahead 50% of the time. Not only that, but if he has aces there, he has 6 outs so he outdraws me a decent ammount of the time. AK has 4 outs, and some runner runner boat possibilities, so he'll outdraw me a bit. But when they have KK or QQ, I'm drawing to exactly one out.
Now I know I'm not gonna fold a set on the flop any time soon, but what do you guys think about this? Is this one of this situations where folding a set is +EV or am I missing a big piece of the puzzle?
Just an interesting hand. Discuss