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Postby Big_Leon » Sat Jun 17, 2006 4:41 pm

Not trying to piss anyone off, but everything that Derk has provided in this thread has been gold. Following the chart is absolutely critical to long term success. Short term, sure you can mix it up and get lucky but you simply lose long run. Personally, the only time I've deviated from the chart has been misclicks. To each his own though... 8-)

Results to date:

Breakaway...0
Sci-Fi...+6
Starluck...+34
Planetluck...+77
Will Hill...$112
Will Hill Monthly(June)...+38
Littlewoods...+192
InterCasino...+94
Omnicasino...+230
Bet365...-57

TOTAL...+$726

I'm about 40% through the InterCasino June reload and up about $140 +/-.

The only problem I'm experiencing has been on the Cryptos. All my accounts got locked down a few weeks ago for several days because my account accidentally was associated with someone else who was an under age minor with a gambling problem. Next, I used to have poker accounts on most of them (Cryptos) but haven't played them in many months. Well, I opened up new casino accounts because I forgot about my old poker accounts. That locked me down for about a week for "investigation". Got all that sh*t cleared up and NOW I can't freakin' withdrawal cash from any account linked to ECash. I can deposit and play but can't pull out any cash. Will Hill, no problem. Intercasino, Littlewood, and Omni...lockdown. It's been almost two weeks, half dozen emails, and about a dozen phone calls. Still nothing.

This has pretty much shut me down from moving on with the rest of the list since it's tying up a good chunk of the BR while the rest is deployed on some poker conquests and can't be withdrawn yet either. I'm way up, but sure don't feel like it right now. :evil:
The older you get, the more rules they are going to try and get you to follow. You just gotta keep on livin', man. L-I-V-I-N. - Wooderson

Personally I just assume everyone sucks until they show otherwise. - Nortonesque
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Postby iceman5 » Sat Jun 17, 2006 4:47 pm

Why cant you withdraw if the investigation is over? Is it just because you are waiting for the PIN to be mailed to you?

And for the record, I dont deviate from correct BJ strategy at all as far as when to hit and when to stand. I just dont look at the chart because i have it mostly memorized and the very few situations where I may be wrong are very very close to not being a mistake no matter what you do...like hitting or standing with 12 when the dealer has a 3.
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Postby Big_Leon » Sat Jun 17, 2006 4:51 pm

The older you get, the more rules they are going to try and get you to follow. You just gotta keep on livin', man. L-I-V-I-N. - Wooderson

Personally I just assume everyone sucks until they show otherwise. - Nortonesque
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Postby TheGonz » Sat Jun 17, 2006 5:26 pm

Well, after some early success with the slots, they now seem to be delighting in kicking me repeatedly in the junk. :(

Blackjack

Breakaway: +$23
Sci-Fi: $0
Starluck: +$104
Planetluck: +$100
Will Hill: +$148
Intercasino: +$114

Total: +$489

Currently doing OnlineCasino.com (instead of Golden Palace. . .same group, but I found somewhere I can do the affiliate deal w/Online Casino towards free stuff)

Slots

All Jackpots: +$365
River Nile: -$40 (busted out)
Roxy Palace: +$131
777 Dragon: +$138
Lucky Nugget: -$50 (busted out)
Vegas Palms: -$4.70 (Thought I'd bust out completely, but I met the WR while I still had $$ left.)
Maple: -$40 (busted out. . .only made it about 1/2 way through the required number of spins)

Total: +$499

Overall Total (12 sites): +$988

I've heard of +EV, but these things would have to rank as at least +++EV. . .probably higher.
Last edited by TheGonz on Sat Jun 17, 2006 8:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Derk » Sat Jun 17, 2006 6:01 pm

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Postby shamdonk » Sat Jun 17, 2006 7:49 pm

Be glad your opponents refuse to fold; if they didn't, you just might go broke.


(9:00:09 PM) GodlikeRoy: i think you could prolly post total shit for the next 2 years aaaaand like 192 days and you'll still be considered 'posting good' cause of your threads that'll never be seen thread
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Postby Derk » Sat Jun 17, 2006 7:58 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Sat Jun 17, 2006 8:12 pm

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Postby Derk » Sat Jun 17, 2006 8:29 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Sat Jun 17, 2006 11:25 pm

Like I said, Ive heard all of your arguments before. Then I go out and play and win again.

Im not dissing your thread at all. This is one hell of a great thread you put together for casino bonuses. Maybe the best thread Ive ever seen.

But someone asked me how I was playing and I told him. Youve now said Im wrong and Im sure the math experts will agree with you. Thats fine.

Like I said, I know all about the gamblers falacy, martingale type systems and all of that. But I also know Ive been winning playing BJ this way for a long time and I'll continue to do so. Right or wrong. Its been working for a long time. Im not recommending it as some sort of get rich quick scheme or anything. People can play however they want. It makes me no difference.
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Postby emmasdad » Sat Jun 17, 2006 11:25 pm

Derk is right here as is usual. He is correct that your EV does not change by varying bet sizes. He is correct that you must follow the chart (which chart depends upon ability to surrender, whether dealer hits on soft 17, whether it is dealer no-peek european style blackjack, and whether you can double any two cards). He is correct that increasing your bet size increases your RoR for that particular casino. As usual, he fails to acknowledge that increasing bet size increases your hourly rate. This is the only reason that you should increase your bet size, just understand that you will bust out of more casinos this way, even though your ev is the same. You will feel more effects of the variance if you increase your bet size. All of your EV is derived from the bonus. Your play must be perfect according to the charts to realize the maximum EV. Everything else posted in this thread that suggests otherwise is bulls**t.

I cannot help but feel emboldened by some of the responses in this thread. In all sincerity, the people in this forum are easily the most intellegent of all of the regular poker forums on the internet. Yet many of you fail to grasp the basics of the mathematical analysis and statistics that go with casino whoring. I am emboldened because I had been at least moderately concerned that +EV casino bonuses would some day soon no longer be offered on the scale that they are today. I no longer worry about that. If regulars on the most intelligent poker forum on the net don't get it and fail to maximize EV, just imagine what sorts of -EV moves the rest of the masses are making. It makes me want to open my own online casino.
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Postby GodlikeRoy » Sat Jun 17, 2006 11:48 pm

I agree with everything that Derk and Emmasdad have said. The truth is Ice that 20 years of live play plus 4 online casinos and a few thousand hands at Yahoo is hardly "long term". If it's working for you then great, but it most certainly is not "better" than flat-betting. It is the same, with an increased RoR (and as emmasdad said, an increased hourly rate).

Here is a good statistical analysis done over a billion hands of whether or not betting systems are better than flat-betting: . If you STILL think that your system will make more money than flat betting over a significant number of hands then I would take Derk up on his offer for him to write a program to prove you wrong, and if you still want to put your money where your mouth is then I have no doubt that you won't be able to find people on this forum to bet against you purely on the fact that it is statistically impossible for your system to win more than flat-betting in the long run, both systems using the same chart to play with.

If it works for you then great, and if you want to keep using it because you feel it is a winning strategy then that's your perogative. However your advocation in your post that you guarantee that your system will win more than flat-betting is completely false (over a statistically significant sample) and it may give people with no experience the wrong idea. Then THEY may not have the same luck that you have had and go broke using your system, which i'm sure nobody wants.
Poker is silly.

It is not enough to be good at chess, you must also play well.

Somewhere in the world someone is training when you are not. When you race him, he will win.

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Postby iceman5 » Sun Jun 18, 2006 8:08 am

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Postby black_knight6 » Sun Jun 18, 2006 11:05 am

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Postby Kuso » Sun Jun 18, 2006 11:24 am

wwcrd?

"that basically sums up poker for me - 12" needle in the testicle." <nutkick> mvp
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