by MTPaid » Mon Jun 19, 2006 12:43 pm
UTG's thought process.......
Uh-oh, he raised while after I limped UTG. He probably thinks I have a strong hand to play UTG, but he still raised. He has an over-pair, but maybe I can flop 2 pair or a flush.
Flop. This could be trouble. I flopped top pair, but it's probably no good. I don't want to give it up, but I don't want to go crazy and lose a bunch of bets and feel like and idiot when he turns over pocket Queens. I'll check and call.
Turn. No help here, but WAIT! He checked. I over-estimated his hand. I'm ahead here. DAMN! I just lost a bet. I have to make up for it on the river.
River. That J seems like a harmless card. If he had JJ he would have bet the turn. Only thing he could have raised pre-flop with that hits this river is AJ, but even that's a questionable raising hand in MP after an UTG limp. I think I have him beat so I'll bet.
Does this work? If he's any good at all, he's not playing a 4 UTG. 99 and he probably would have bet the turn unless (may be going for the check-raise since you bet the flop, but doubtful). The Jack didn't help him unless he has the same hand as you because he would have raised pre-flop. To be fair though I probably expect him to bet our or check raise with A9 after the 9 on the flop so I'm not sure I put him on that hand either. 77,88, ATs, KQs, KJs, AJ (less likely) are what I'm thinking.
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