Somebody wrote that you should trust your reads and never refuse to let go of a hand if everything is telling you to fold. I folded a set tonight, first time in a coon's age that I did that with no straight or flush out there.

Pacific, $50 NL, full ring.

I get 66 in MP and limp, it's about 5 ways. A donkish dude OTB raises to 4x and gets 4 callers including me. He's bad, could have a wide range here. Anyway it's a very big pot going to the flop.

Flop is [Td][6h]. I have been betting into people tonight but decide to check to the raiser. Raiser bets half pot, BB flat calls, everybody folds, I checkraise strong, raiser calls, BB calls.

Turn is . Total brick. The pot is about $35 and I have $40 left. I am going to push as soon as it gets to me. But before I can, the BB pushes all-in. He also has $40 left. I think about it and lay it down. Only one hand is beating me that makes any sense, but I have a feeling in my bones that he has the TT.

What do you guys think? Results later.

I would never fold there. You are getting almost 2-1. Only one logical hand beats you TT... Cant fold. AT or AK would make sense too.

What type of flop you looking for with 66? I think its a great flop since there is an A on board giving you action. Must call

I'd never lay this, he could have anything from two pair, A10, A6, A4 to a str8 flush draw type hand like KQs to just a flush draw. Definately a week play folding here IMO.

Thanks for reaming me out, guys. I appreciate it. And like I said, I haven't laid down a set on a board like this in a long, long time. Maybe never.

I have a thing on my monitor: "weak then strong is a monster." That's really what I work with on a regular basis. Somebody who goes call, call, call, push out of nowhere is on a monster.

Basically, my read on the guy was ... well, he started with well over a full stack, and he seemed as solid as players get on this site. Actually, there seem to be several solid players at Pacific, more often than not sitting with 1.5 to 3.0 full stacks. I've been working hard to identify the idiots from the good players.

Here's another hand I played against someone who seemed generally solid. I raised AA, the flop came A83 with two spades, he open pushed the flop and of course I called and he showed 33. Pacific players love to push with huge hands. I've seen it a bunch of times.

Before he pushed I had him on a flush draw. After he pushed I tried hard to put him on a flush draw and couldn't do it. I couldn't figure out anything else, either. Any A would bet that flop, or at least raise that weak-ass continuation bet to see where he stood. Any two-pair would be nervous about my check-raise. The strongest hand that I'm beating is AT, and I just don't see a solid player playing AT like that.

My odds were actually 3:1 on a call because the donk called all-in with his monster [Jh]. And the pusher showed TT. And I did feel good. And I am bragging.

I guess it's down to trusting your read or not. This time I was right.

thats results oriented thinking

in the long haul, this type of play costs you money

I agree with the comments posted. My question is what if this was in a tourney (no re-buys)? When set over set happens in a cash game, you re-load and go on your merry way. You know in the long run your sets will make you money, but in a tourney where there is no long run ifyou bust out, would this change any opinions? Assuming that like in this hand, the hero's instincts are in overdrive screaming at him that he is beat.

PS sry for switching to MTT strategy, maybe I should have started a new post in the MTT section?

What do we mean by "results-based thinking"?

To me, results-based thinking is when you get it all-in as a dog but win the pot anyway, and feel happy. Or when you are glad you folded because the cards that came after the flop would have beaten you, even though you were ahead on the flop. Stuff like that. If you're thinking like that, well, that's just bad poker.

But I think that "results-based thinking" does not apply to a situation like this. The "result" has already occurred: he has the set to beat me already. My worry isn't about the cards to come, it's about the cards that have already come.

Or, if a situation like this does count as "results-based thinking," then the mantra "Never be results-based in your thinking" needs to be balanced against "Trust your reads and your instincts."

I will go through PokerTracker to confirm this, but I think that I have never before laid down a set without an obvious flush or straight beating me. Phil Hellmuth says he's only laid down kings preflop a couple of times, and both times he was right and the guy showed aces. The guy is a jackass but he is right to be proud of this. Making the very occasional, very difficult, but correct fold is the way to go.

So far I'm 1 for 1 making a read that I needed to fold a set. I don't expect to do it again over the next, say, 100,000 hands....