If you guys really thinks it's luck I want you at my table. Is luck a factor? Do you have to have some luck to win? Without a doubt but not 95%. You have to play better poker then the rest of the field.

Hand selection and playing the player is the factor. So many big stacks don't stop to realize that if a smaller stack is pushing back there is a reason. The small stack knows if he is wrong he's gone. So he isn't going to push back to many times on a bluff. I'm not talking about the less then 10X the BB stacks I'm talking bout the middle to lower middle stacks. Even short stacks get poker hands.

What gets me knocked out of a trny. Over playing JJ and QQ. Over playing KQ and A10. Over playing TPTK. That's not bad luck that's bad poker.

I sit there and watch Donk after Donk win all in's with middle PP's or Q10off. So when I get one of the above hands I think wow I have a monster. Only to have A5s call my push and cripple me or knock me out. Why was I pushing one of those hands. They are not worthy of a push. I had become lazy I didn't want to out play someone I just wanted them to bow down to my push.

We play poker to take the luck factor out of gambling. If it was all about luck we would all be playing slots (without the bonus of course).

Rant over!

Let me clarify. Over the short run (ie. 1 MTT) luck is a tremendous factor. Over the long run it is less of one. We all know that I think. You are going to have many more losing sessions playing MTT's than you will winning sessions, but 1 big win is usually enough to make up for all the bad luck.

Also, in a tournament situation, later on in the tournament, most times you don't have the luxury of laying down TPTK unless you are positive you are beat. You can't get away from over-playing it sometimes. Same goes for JJ and QQ when the blinds get big.

TK, tomorrow I'll dig it out. Phil Gordon goes into this in the LGB. He's got a chart that shows how lucky you have to get, and it's daunting. We don't disagree with what you're saying, but to deny the luck factor and the size of it is a recipe for disappointment, frustration and possibly quitting the game.

Barry Greenstein calls poker tournaments "a lottery with better odds and an element of skill," in Ace on the River. I would give him a lot of credit for being one of the better thinkers in the game. If he believes it's a lottery (luck), then who am I to disagree.

My buddy was in an MTT on FT last night and caught AQ in the SB, an A on the flop, and all the money in. BB had AK. Did he overplay the AQ? Nope. I was sweating him and was on the phone with him in Fargo, ND. It was folded to the blinds. It was bad luck the BB had him dominated. It was good fortune for the BB that my buddy had AQ. Both played it right. It was luck. It was a lot of luck that had him in it at all, as he was blinded down to 290 when I got home and logged onto his account and brought him back to 3K, as his Net connection went down as the tournament started. He finally got back in and that hand occurred shortly after.

It's okay, buddy. Don't stress over it. Watching poker on TV right at this moment. All in with KK vs. QQ. Luck or skill? The skillful put themselves in position to win, but once the money goes in, it's simply up to the gods.

CJ

Did somebody say something about luck.

14 left in the $2 rebuy at AP this afternoon. I've been in the top 5 all day. Top 18 paid, but I don't even get my money back unless I make the final table. I'm keeping up the aggression and here are the last 3 hands I play which all came in the last 8 hands I was sitting at the table. Was this luck? (Player in Hand 2 had turned over Q8s and Q7o last 2 times he went to showdown so it was an easy call.)

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t1200/t2400
(Ante: t150)
7 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: t30184.94
UTG+1: t77142.53
MP1: t13401.66
CO: t33850
PayMeDaMoney: t69140
SB: t27686.68
BB: t38161.64

Pre-flop: (7 players) PayMeDaMoney is Button with
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t2400 (pot was t3600), 2 folds, PayMeDaMoney calls t2400 (pot was t6000), SB calls t1200 (pot was t8400), BB checks.

Flop: (t10650, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, PayMeDaMoney bets t7200, 2 folds, UTG+1 raises all-in t74592.53, PayMeDaMoney folds.
Uncalled bets: t67392.53 returned to UTG+1.

Results:
Final pot: t25050

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t1200/t2400
(Ante: t150)
7 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: t92442.53
UTG+1: t13251.66
MP1: t33700
PayMeDaMoney: t59390
Button: t25136.68
SB: t35611.64
BB: t30034.94

Pre-flop: (7 players) PayMeDaMoney is CO with
3 folds, PayMeDaMoney raises to t7200, 2 folds, BB calls t4800 (pot was t10800).

Flop: (t16650, 2 players)
BB checks, PayMeDaMoney bets t12000, BB raises all-in t22684.94, PayMeDaMoney calls t10684.94 (pot was t51334.94).

Turn: (t62019.88, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t62019.88)


River: (t62019.88, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t62019.88)


Results:
Final pot: t62019.88
PayMeDaMoney Shows 5d 5h
BB Shows Ad As


Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t1500/t3000
(Ante: t200)
7 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: t52769.88
UTG+1: t122592.53
MP1: t15701.66
CO: t18300
PayMeDaMoney: t24005.06
SB: t25786.68
BB: t30411.64

Pre-flop: (7 players) PayMeDaMoney is Button with
3 folds, CO calls t3000 (pot was t4500), PayMeDaMoney raises all-in t23805.06, SB folds, BB raises all-in t30211.64.
Uncalled bets: t6406.58 returned to BB.

Flop: (t53510.12, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t53510.12)


Turn: (t53510.12, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t53510.12)


River: (t53510.12, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t53510.12)


Results:
Final pot: t53510.12
PayMeDaMoney Shows 8s Ks
BB Shows Ah As

Yup, ran into Aces 3x in 1 orbit. 2 consecutive hands somebody slowplayed Aces on me. I was already counting my money. Screw aggression. Wait for Aces and nail the son of a bitch that's being aggressive from now on.