by Stoneburg » Wed Jul 19, 2006 7:14 am
I don't think it's weak tight to fold bottom set there if the situation calls for it, in fact I think it's quite stupid to go by the philosophy of never folding bottom set on the flop. I think about it this way, if *I* am villain, what hand will I raise with on this board when it's a bet and a raise to me? The answer is the nuts or a set. So if he plays something simmilar, I'm going to be either 30% or 5% to win. Even if I put in top two, which is reasonable, I have only 30-40% equity against that pretty wide hand distribution. I mean really, what is he going to have?
In a raised or shorthanded pot I'll go to the felt 99% of the time with bottom set, but 6 players saw this *limped* pot, it's not unlikely that someone is out there with the nuts or a higher set, and if they are, how are they going to play it? Well, probably exactly like that.
Now you can rant about it being weak/tight or how all the players at $25 or $50 are donks but that's just bullshit*. There are plenty of decent players at those levels, in fact the decent players outnumber the donks nowadays, and there are even some good players thrown in the mix. Not everyone advances to higher stakes as soon as they're beating the game, some prefer to play lower because of the softer competition, or because they just feel comfortable there.
* Last time I played $50 NL I had 6 tables open, average vpip ranged from 25-16%, I was at 10% so I lowered it a bit but those are not donky stats. Usually there would be one or two loose players at the table while the rest were playing pretty much tight ABC poker.