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Flopped big draw, unsure what to do.... - Live Poker Forums

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Flopped big draw, unsure what to do....

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Flopped big draw, unsure what to do....

Postby kcb » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:24 pm

$25NL, Bodog. Loose table.

I have [As] [Js] in MP and raise to $1.40 after EP limps.

MP+1 calls, button calls, BB calls, and EP limper calls. Holy damn...

Flop: [Jc] [Ts] [Qs] (Pot: ~$5)

BB checks, EP checks, I check, MP bets $3, button folds, BB calls, I call, EP folds.

I think I might have the best hand here, as AK doesn't seem all that likely. I surely would have been RR preflop with someone holding AK. 98 isn't completely out of the question and if anyone has that, It's MP seeing as how he's the bettor.. I'm not sure what I put BB on. Probably a draw, but he's so bad, he might call with top pair no kicker.

Turn: [6h] (Pot: $14)

BB checks, I check, MP leads for $8, BB calls, and I push all-in for $13 more back to them....

When MP bet, he only left himself $6 behind, and BB had us both covered with about $55 by the time we got to the river.

I figure if I didn't have the best hand, I'm definitely not that far behind. I put BB on an inferior draw and MP is could have the ass-end of the straight, but could also be betting into me with top pair, no kicker.

The following are the stats from pokerhand.org with the hands that I thought i was up against plugged in.

Flop:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Js 490 54.26 398 44.08 15 1.66 0.548
8s 7s 4 0.44 797 88.26 102 11.30 0.058
Qc 8h 307 34.00 494 54.71 102 11.30 0.394

Turn:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Js 15 35.71 27 64.29 0 0.00 0.357
8s 7s 0 0.00 39 92.86 3 7.14 0.036
Qc 8h 24 57.14 15 35.71 3 7.14 0.607

So assuming my read is correct, it looks like I just pushed on the wrong street.

Results later..

Thoughts?
[Tc][Ts]
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Postby black_knight6 » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:45 pm

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Postby kcb » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:51 pm

[Tc][Ts]
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Postby T-Rod » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:53 pm

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Postby black_knight6 » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:59 pm

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Postby kcb » Fri Jul 28, 2006 1:04 pm

[Tc][Ts]
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Postby The Golden 1 » Fri Jul 28, 2006 1:07 pm

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Postby Aisthesis » Fri Jul 28, 2006 1:07 pm

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Postby kcb » Fri Jul 28, 2006 1:32 pm

[Tc][Ts]
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Postby JSBC » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:40 pm

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Postby shobute » Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:44 pm

Yes it should.
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Postby NorthView » Fri Jul 28, 2006 3:10 pm

Mon May 12, 2008 1:46 am
When I play a patient and relaxed game I win - that simple.

Mon May 12, 2008 10:55 pm
Seriously, fuck poker.
==================================================================

[21:03] NorthViewBTP: mac is a fellow mexican
[21:03] Mekosking: yup
[21:03] NorthViewBTP: you should support your bro
[21:03] Mekosking: therefore hes a fat worthless tsr obv
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Postby k3nt » Fri Jul 28, 2006 3:14 pm

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Postby Twelver » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:18 pm

I raise the flop here like 99% of the time. You have the best hand, and even if you don't you are damn sure drawing to it. Ger your money in before that [s] you want falls and kills all of your action.
Mekos King (10:21:59 PM): one of the first rules of manlaw
Mekos King (10:22:06 PM): is never ever try to suck backup to a bitch
Mekos King (10:22:09 PM): who caught u cheatin
Mekos King (10:22:23 PM): unless your married and would lose like money inna divorce
Mekos King (10:22:33 PM): then u suckup just long enuf to get close enough to killer obv

Heat517163 (5:05:37 PM): black people man
Heat517163 (5:05:40 PM): they travel in packs
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Postby LetsGetItCrunk » Fri Jul 28, 2006 4:24 pm

PUSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSH. Get the money in on the flop. Also I strongly agree that big hands on other tables are capable of influencing your play on the current table. Especially when there is a difficult decision at hand. If all fails and you cant think on the bullets table... just push it has to be +Ev.
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