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Rebuy tournament hand with a flush draw only

Postby starstealer » Fri Mar 25, 2005 9:38 am

(This is a hand from my journal. I had posted it with regard to one of my tournaments and I think it bears discussing. For background, this is a rebuy tournament and I have not rebought yet.)

This is hand #48: I'm in the BB with J5s (diamonds) and there are 3 limpers plus the SB in already. I check to see the flop and it is [8d] [Kc] [Ad] - giving me a solid flush draw. The SB checks, I check, and the first limper checks. The next person bets 500, the last person folds, the SB calls, I call, and now the first limper pushes all in. This player has us all covered and has made this move before. Every time that he has and been called down he had either overcards to the board or a single pair (not necessarily top pair). The original bettor calls, the caller calls and it is back to me. My portion of the pot would be 8720 and it is another 1555 for me to call all-in.

Now this is a rebuy tournament and we're still in the rebuy period here. According to my guess, I'm mostly up against single pairs here - and they are most likely duplicating. However, one or two - possibly three of my diamonds are probably out already. However, I'm getting more than 4:1 on my call here - and I suspect if I hit my hand - it will be good. Even with as few as 6 outs, I'm still at about 3:1 against to hit my hand. Since a big stack can do much more here - and I hadn't rebought yet - I decided the risk for getting a big stack was worth it and called. Unfortunately, an offsuit 5 and an offsuit 2 hit on the turn and river and I was forced to rebuy.

According to twodimes.net, here's the hand:

7d5d 31.5%
As9d 25.9%
Ah9s 25.9%
Kd7h 16.7%

In case you are curious, the guy who moved all in had A9o without the 9d.
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Postby Kalle » Fri Mar 25, 2005 3:10 pm

I like it. I like to gamble in the first hour of a rebuy tournament, this includes calling all ins with drawing hands. Your only worry is that someone has a bigger draw (this is not unlikely though). If you win this hand you are in very good shape.


By the way, why dont you make a rebuy before the tournament begins? This way you start the tournament with 3000 chips. I like this much better than going broke and then making the first rebuy. If you catch a hand and some bonehead decides to double you up with AJ or something like that, you have 6000 instead of 3000. If you loose your 3000 you can just leave.

Let me explain it with a hand I played: 2. hand, i'm all in with preflop TT (the best hand) against two players with 3000 and one player with 1500. They don't improve and i had 10500 chips after the hand. If I had decided not to make a rebuy I would only have had 6000 chips.
+ev = 10500-6000-1500 = 3000.

Off course, this is only a good idea if you think you can get your chips in as a favourite, but since you are a better player than the majority of the players in the rebuy tournaments it would be +ev for you. Am I wrong here?
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Postby cholo loco » Mon Mar 28, 2005 11:32 am

always been a gamblin man,
i roll them bones with either hand,
seven is the promised land,
early in the morning
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Postby starstealer » Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:05 pm

Kalle - well its a matter of perception I guess. I like the idea of winning a rebuy tournament with only the investment of the original buyin or just a rebuy or two. If I rebuy at the very beginning of the tournament - I'm essentially guaranteeing it will be a $31 tournament - whereas if I wait - I may only do the addon ($21) or even do neither ($11).

Since I am better than most of the competition for the first hour - I can expect to build my stack without rebuying - and in most cases, that has happened. Since I rarely go all-in (even if it might be a positive EV play - I play the first hour much like a freezeout in most circumstances). In the case above - it was close to the end of the first hour and I had over 2k in chips - but less than 3k. By pushing there - I had a 33% chance of hitting an 8k stack and a $21 tourney and a 67% chance of having a 3k stack and a $41 tourney. If it was earlier in the hour, I don't know that I would've made the same play to be honest.

I realize that in a lot of cases, people feel that it has a better value if you rebuy immediately - however - in terms of my mindset - I feel more comfortable without doing the immediate rebuy.

For instance, in this situation, if I had done the rebuy, I'd be at about 3.5k - I'd be less likely to push my hand here. If I did - I'd have a good chance of needing to rebuy twice ($51) or have a 10k stack. The problem in this case, if I lose - I'm at a shorter stack with more money invested.
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Postby cholo loco » Mon Mar 28, 2005 9:43 pm

i think your strategy of playing a low limit rebuy like a freezeout is going to cost you a lot in the long run. if you want to limit your expences i would just accept that sometimes i will be out early but not ssacrifice ev ever in these events. there are too many people giving too much money away to not get your share of it.
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early in the morning
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Postby starstealer » Wed Mar 30, 2005 3:17 pm

Okay, I realize that this by no means proves my point or proves yours wrong, but just some data to work with regarding the rebuy at the start versus rebuying only by necessity or near the end of the first hour:

I've reviewed 5 of my rebuy tournaments (I've only played 6 or 7 of them) and in those, I had 4 situations where I would end up allin and was called:

1. I have pocket kings in the SB. It folds to a MP, who raises to 510 (about 15xBB). The button reraises all-in (to 1500), I call, as does the original raiser. The original raiser has jacks, the button has tens. The turn is a jack and I have to rebuy.

In this case, I'm not sure how much the raiser had - but regardless - if I had done a rebuy at the start, I'd now need to do 2 more or quit for the night.

2. I have pocket aces in MP. The player on my right (2880) limps and I raise to 100 (5xBB). I get one call (1440) and the limper calls as well. The flop is 39Q with 2 clubs. The first limper checks and I bet 380 into the 330 pot. The LP caller now raises me the minimum and the other player merely calls. I put it on the line here - raising allin - and both players call. I've got the raiser covered by 30. The raiser had KQo and the limper had JTo. My aces hold up and very quickly I'm up to 4410.

In this case, it does make a difference of 1410. A few hands later, I got all-in with a 2850 stack and took it to boost me up to around 8k. Here it is arguable that the extra 1410 could have made some difference, but that is definitely debatable.

3. I have pocket jacks with a stack of 1775. Blinds are 25/50. I'm essentially the short stack (there's 3 people below 2k, one of them is me, another is at 1800, the last has 45 chips less than me).

I'm UTG+1 and open raise to 200. It is called by a monster stack (13k) and then raised to 1730 by the shortest stack. To make things worse, the player on my right (with 4k), calls the all-in. It gets back to me and I have to make a decision for my chips with pocket jacks and three opponents. At this point, I don't think its likely that the big stack will fold - especially if I call. I decided in the end that they were probably light on their calls since the tournament was a rebuy and pushed in myself. As expected the big stack called. Obviously the guy with 4k called for the additional 45 chips.

The big stack showed KTs (hearts), the 4k stack showed KQo and the short stack had pocket sixes. The board flopped a jack and turned a king - so the pot was a monster. I survived and walked away with 7080 for my troubles.

-- In this situation - it is a tough call. First of all, with a bigger stack, I'd play the hand much differently and probably wouldn't have called all-in preflop (or pushed for that matter). So in this case, it would have cost me some chips.

4. That's the hand of this post. Here I could have made more on the hand (up to around 10k I think). So if the difference is finishing the hand with 8.7k and risking $20 (original buyin plus a rebuy if I get knocked out) or 10k and risking $40 (original buyin and rebuy plus 2 rebuys if I get knocked out) - I think the first situation is not only safer but also more sane. If I wasn't going to call here, then my investment is the same with a 3k stack versus either 1500 (70%) or 8.7k (30%).

Like I said, I'm not real sure how this really works out, but it has seemed to me to be more conservative at the beginning of the tournament and attempt to double up off of the stupidity of others rather than do an immediate rebuy and try to double up the extra amount you've got (which only works if everyone or most everyone at your table does).

This is probably a topic that could be argued for quite a while, but I am definitely interested in hearing more opinions about the subject backed up with some life-experiences.

/d
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