by Stelvask » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:33 pm
Well, i think we can all agree that you're up against another PP. I'm not giving him credit for J7 here. Which means that the only 3 hands that beat you here are the 3 flopped sets.
in the 99 vs QQ hand, you raised preflop, and he raised your flop bet with an overpair, obviously not believing you had KK or AA on that flop. Obviously he's aware that you're raising with a range of good hands, and probably making a CB on almost all of them. Because of that, i think it's entirely possible that he's trying to find out if HIS pair is good here. something likt TT, 99, 88, even QQ again. i have to assume he would have reraised you with KK, but i still have to put that hand in his range, since he could be trying to trap you with it.
After the QQ hand, it seems clear that he's not going to be putting in a lot of money with just one pair after the flop. Because of that, i have a good reason to believe that if he indeed does have just one pair, he'll likely be checking it down behind me. *especially* if it's not QQ or KK. I'm willing to take one off here and call the flop.
On the turn, i'd rather see you check and muck to a large bet. but after he let you go cheaply with his QQ, i think there's a good chance he'll be checking behind. I don't mind the stop and go, but i do see a big problem with using it here. The pot will be ~150, so you'll need to be betting out at least $100. if he does have a set, he would likely read you for aces or kings here, and the worst case situation would be if he cold called (obviously if he pushed you would be folding). at that point, with a $350 pot on the river, you'd still have no clue where you are in the hand if he's as good as you say, and you just might suddenly find yourself in a position to be playing for an $800 pot at 1/2 with just one pair.
So, i don't mind taking one off here and calling the flop raise, thinking that he'll be checking behind me on the turn. if he checks behind on the turn, i'm value betting $75 (half pot) on the river, and folding to a raise.
-[4h]-
Stelvask