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Why won $ at SD % is overrated (IMO) - Live Poker Forums

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Why won $ at SD % is overrated (IMO)

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Why won $ at SD % is overrated (IMO)

Postby Triple B » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:41 pm

Why is it overrated? Because it means nothing.

Why do I need to win 55%+ of my hands when I am usually getting better than 2-1 on a river call?

My answer: I don't and I shouldn't or I am folding too much.

This is a bit of an abberation even for me (a player that never wins near 55% at showdown over any decent sample size) but I am running at 9.9 PT BB/100 since moving to AP. This is over about 12K hands.
What is my W$ at SD %? 48.5%.

Tell me why I'm a donk for winning less than half my showdowns?
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Postby The Golden 1 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:43 pm

As coming over from playing tens of thousands of limit hands, W$SD is a much more important stat in limit because pots are much closer to an average size. In NL you just need to be winning bigger pots more of the time to do well.
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Postby MHFlush » Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:43 am

Won$ at SD is only useful in conjunction with WTSD. What's your number there? I would bet something like 25%. And I bet that you have a high Preflop aggression. I bet you raise more than 10%. Right?

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Postby black_knight6 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:00 am

MH is right...it means nothing without ALL of the other numbers: VPIP, WTSD, PFR, and even W$WSF. Uber tight people like me have high W$SD% because my WTSD is so low, VPIP is low, and PFR is high in relation to my VPIP. And remember that a lot of the pots good players lose at showdown are small-medium, but the ones we win AT SHOWDOWN are usually really big. A lot of the pots we WIN are before showdown - only the big ones we win get to showdown.
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Postby iceman5 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:20 am

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Postby k3nt » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:19 am

Here's the flaw in Triple B's logic.

Yes you're getting 2:1 or better usually when you call on the river. But W$SD does not only measure whether you win or not when you call a river bet, but also when you bet the river or when the river checks down.

There is a place in PT where it shows your % won "when calling a river bet." That's the number that can usefully be compared to the odds you're typically getting when you call. I'm sure that number in your PT database is a whole lot lower than 48.5%. Go check it out and see whether or not you have a leak.
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Postby iceman5 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:52 am

I never looked at this before but my W$SD is 57.6% and my W$SD when calling a river bet is 52.2%.

Im winning more than 1/2 the time when I call the river and I know I must be getting much better than 2-1 on avg because river bets are rarely full pot bets, so I think I must be doing pretty good in that spot.
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Postby k3nt » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:53 am

Wow, 52%? That's crazy high.

You need to be calling more river bets, I would think.
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Postby Triple B » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:02 pm

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Postby Triple B » Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:11 pm

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