by Calaziar » Sun Sep 03, 2006 10:54 pm
From earlier today: I was new to the table but on the second pass Villiain decided to steal again. Villiain isn't in my database and I have no idea how/what he plays other than the 9-10 previous hands. What I'm trying to say is I'm going completely on 'gut' here and when it comes to 'logical' activities like poker the gut is often a moron. My plan is simple; I'm going to represent the biggest hand I can get away with and show down the cards. If I lose it's all 'Advertising budget'. It's probably a huge -EV play and any long term benefits are completely 'pschologically dependent.' I may get more action in the blinds rather than the less action I'm hoping for, for example. It's also a huge variance play as I could easily have lost more than I made because I'd have to 'fire another barrel' to ensure its effectiveness.
Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
10 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: $82
UTG+1: $191
UTG+2: $48.50
MP1: $95.50
MP2: $55.50
MP3: $122.50
CO: $123
Button: $115
badknight111: $48
BB: $89
Pre-flop: (10 players) badknight111 is SB with :7s :ac
6 folds, CO raises, Button folds, badknight111 3-bets, BB folds, CO caps, badknight111 calls.
Flop: :5c :qd :4c (9SB, 2 players)
badknight111 checks, CO bets, badknight111 raises, CO 3-bets, badknight111 calls.
Turn: :tc (7.5BB, 2 players)
badknight111 bets, CO folds.
Uncalled bets: 1BB returned to badknight111.
Results:
Final pot: 7.5BB
badknight111 shows 7s Ac
So why post this hand? I think despite the result it was badly played.
I want to talk about the high variance this type of play entails. If you give me TP or any pair on the flop it would still be played the same way. It would almost have to be. That is the 'blessing/curse' of HU play. It is a big crapshoot and when done from the blinds with substandard hands it becomes an even bigger crapshoot. Unless you are up against the SB when you are the BB you will never have position. Your 'reads' of your opponents' hands become guesses and deductive hand readers are hampered because (at least at the Party Monster 2/4 tables) everyone raises either the flop or the turn or both HU and CR bluffs/semibluffs are common as well. I think as the limits go up it becomes much more 'cost-effective' to take these risks or take them more often. If you play at limits below 5/10 the value of blind stealing vs. the rake is problematic as well. IMO when you play below 1/2 you are really losing alot of your equity just because the rake will be so high compared to pot size.
By playing the template from SSHE I have these numbers for all hands
BB: -0.28
SB: -0.16
These are based on 3k+ hands at Party 95%+ at 2/4.
I hope my tone here doesn't lead anyone to think that I'm recommending the above play/methods. If I was sure I was 'correct' I would chuckle silently at the thread on my way to the bank. I don't know whether anything I'm saying has any real merit. I do hope we can get some discussion/feedback about the high variance involved with much of blind defence. I can understand why someone with VPIP<15% might be more willing to accept this variance than someone who plays 'looser'. I also understand that some of the benefits of aggressive blind defence aren't immediately apparent in the 'stats'. It is certainly a 'victory' to just see a few more unraised flops.
My luck is so bad that if I bought a cemetery, people
would stop dying.
~Ed Furgol