i'm dealt KK in the BB at a 3/6 FR table on stars. SB has $530. I've only played about 15 hands with him and havne't seen him do much of interest or note.

The CO open limps. SB limps. i raise to 24. usually i go 30 here, but i don't think either of them has much with the limps. CO calls, and the SB suddenly min reraises to 42. i bump it back up to 150. CO folds and the SB pushes for another $381.

Who thinks he has aces? Who thinks my kings are good here?

Well, with no read on this guy, i just couldn't give him credit.

As a rule of thumb, i automatically assume any player i don't recognize is a donkey until proven otherwise. i tanked before calling.

He had AA, but for the second time in this sort of spot i hit my K and sucked out, but once again was left wondering how much of a donk i was for making the call.

The biggest problem for me to believe he had aces was his SB limp after the CO open limp. I really thought i was going to be shown either AK or a smaller pair more often than AA and talked myself into the call.

oops.

You have to be pretty damn sure he's got AA to fold here, and the way he's played it I'm not sure enough. I'd have called that, expecting AK much of the time.

Isn't there 700 in the pot after his push? And you need to invest 380 more?
And in that case the full pot would be roughly 1080.

If you give his range as AA or QQ (or lower PP) for simplicity. You win ~20% against AA and ~80% against QQ. And disregarding if he could have AKs, which I don't think.

So if he has AA you on average get 216 (with a negative EV of -170 on your call) if he has QQ you on average win 864 (with a postive EV 480 on your call) So I think he needs to have AA more than 2/3 of the time for this call to be -EV (IS my math right?)

So do you think it is twice as likely that he would do this move with AA, as it is with QQ or lower?

And now I know the result so of course I woulda' folded