Had pretty good reads on everyone at the table, cept this new player who just sat down. New player (is in the CO)

Hero is in the BB with

UTG calls, 1 fold, CO calls, button calls, SB folds, Hero checks

Flop

Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets, button folds, hero calls, UTG folds

unsure what this guy haves, figure I'll peel here with middle pair and see what happens

Turn

hero checks, CO checks

River

hero checks, CO bets, Hero Calls

While it's possible we have the best hand, I can't imagine it being probable all that often. Maybe I'm a little too conservative but I'd probably dump this on the flop, we're not really closing the betting here. If UTG decides to CR here (depending on his tendencies) we can be farily certain we're in bad shape regardless. We had the opportunity to take a free look at the flop with basically the worst starting hand. I would imagine at best we're hoping he's just betting overs on the flop, the only thing we're really beating on the river is 4x, a PP lower than 7's that's not 44, or A high. We're looking at a pretty small pot, I don't think this is really worth going further with, other than to satisfy our curiousity.

Aren't you at least 25% to win on the river? Haven't crunched the numbers but I think so...then again I'm an eternal optimist as I get closer to the river, so... PokerStove has you 68% to win on the river against 1 random hand. Don't know how that translates considering 6h dealt and 3 seeing the flop but it is something.

You are 49% to win or tie at the river against 2 random hands...I don't know if I'd try to CR river...I'm ok with the way you played it. I don't think your semibluff chances after the flop were as high as your win chances. Would villiain be this passive after the flop (much less pre-flop) with 88, 99, or TT? I've seen (and played) stranger at Party 2/4. If he's straightforward and careful he may have made trip J on the river and no longer worry about your Q or 2pair possibilities. That would certainly account for the betting.

He might also have limped with Ax or a bigger A if he was very cautious and worried about the UTG limper sandbagging. Not really 'cautious' to bet the flop with zip though into 4 potential callers unless he thought Ax was the best hand.

I'm guessing you were folding to a lead bet on the turn? What about 89s or, more probably 56s for straight draws and a backdoor flush draw with a bluff on the end? This last also accounts for the betting in a straightforward fashion.