It's poker odds (mebbe this belongs in the odds forum?).

I've forgotten too much to do the math, but let's say this...

There are 4 aces in the deck, yes?

The odds for 1 of them to be in my hand, before seeing any other cards, are 48:4 (12:1) against.

Now let's say we see 3 cards on the flop and 2 in your hand, and 3 of those cards are Aces.

Now the odds of one (the only remaining) ace being in my hand are 47:1 against, almost 4x worse.

The maths is probably off, but the idea's there anyway...

ABSENT hand reading skills, it's true that if the board pairs, that it statistically makes it less likely...but you have to balance that prior probability statement with the hand's action.