Here's a play that didn't work out and that definately cost me too much. $50 PLO on UB.
I have about $100 in my stack and get [Kd][Kh][Jh] in the CO. 5 limpers and I raise the pot. 2 callers (EP, stack $120) and MP, stack $60); flop is
[9s][2s].
Pot is about $15. EP bets pot, MP folds. I decide that this is a good moment to raise him off the hand, so I raise the max. However, EP flat calls. Pot is now $135. I've observed EP play in bigger games (1/2 and 2/4) and he seemed to be a winning player there. So I'm kind of anxious. Does he think I'm overplaying an AAxx hand or bluffing? I haven't played many hands at the table and I haven't bluffed at all. Surely he wouldn't call if he believed that I had the nut flush.
So on the turn, which is a blank , he checks to me. I have $50 left. I put that in, figuring that
- I still might have a littlebit of folding equity (if he sees that I'm willing to play for my stack he might believe I have the nut flush)
- I might be ahead to middle set and then I want the money in
- if the board does pair on the river and he has a flush he's probably not going to invest more, so I get full value
- if the board does not pair I avoid having to make a tricky decision on the river if he puts me all in.
Anyway, opponent instantly calls. River was of no help, and opponent takes it with the Q-high flush (he also had a set of dueces).
Any thoughts? I thought the flop was an ideal situation for a steal raise, but apparently it lacked credibility. Later I thought that my preflop raise might have led him to think I had AAxx and that I was overplaying that. After all, many players on this level go crazy with such a hand regardless of the board.
Pieter