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Did I play this right

Postby Rhound50 » Tue Apr 12, 2005 1:33 am

Ok after having a nice run at PL, I have had my ass handed to me in the last two days. I know the one outter busting my quads wasnt my bad but this last bust out I think I played right but want some confirmation. $50 PL O8 on TGC, I have [Ad] [Ad] [Jd] [7h] . There are 5 limpers, so I limp. Flop is [Ac] [2h] [9h]. Shot stack who has $25 in front of him, bets $2, gets called by another stack with $100, I have about $60 in front of me. I raise pot, short stack goes all in, gets called by big stack. Its now back to me, what do you do??? I pushed all in get called by big stack. Turn is [4h] and river is [5s]. I was definatly screwed after the river but did I make the right play pushing all in on the turn.
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Postby starstealer » Tue Apr 12, 2005 7:26 am

Well assuming that your second ace of diamonds is actually a spade - you've got a common hand that is referred to as "the nuts without redraws." Its a precarious situation, because although you can improve to the full house or quads, you are running really tight against someone who has the nut flush draw and a straight draw. Also, since this is O8 - someone very well could be playing a hand like A34x suited. With multiple players in the pot - it is easy for a flush draw to call along if he's got backup. In addition, if the player had something like A234 - he may not fold just because he thinks he's got you licked for high and low with his backup flush draw. Since he'd have blocking cards to prevent the quads or boat - this further reduces your chances of holding up.

The problem in this situation is that you can't charge enough on these players on the flop to make it "correct" to fold. By betting or raising the pot - they will always have the odds to call on the flop.

What can be done? Well, you can do as you did - hope for a safe turn and river with your current nuts. You have an EV of .476 against A34x (he has .524). However, the problem here is that you are up against a third player. Here, you are most certainly the favorite to win some of the money in the pot - but the additional player could be creating more problems in making your hand hold up. Here's two situations to think of:

In the first case, you are up against [Ah] [3h] [4c] [Ks] and
[3c] [4s] [Qh] [Kh]. Here are the numbers from twodimes.net about it:

pokenum -o8 ad as jd 7h - 3h 4c ah ks - kh 3c 4s qh -- ac 2h 9h
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing Ac 9h 2h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As Ad Jd 7h 189 444 222 0 4 96 0 0.477
Ks 4c Ah 3h 33 149 451 66 0 0 435 0.325
4s 3c Kh Qh 7 7 593 66 0 0 435 0.199

Clearly you are making money in this situation, but you still only have 47.7% equity (which is quite fine 3-handed). However, think about this situation:

You are still up against [Ah] [3h] [4c] [Ks], but now the other opponent has middle set without a low draw ([9s] [9d] [Td] [Js]) and no blocking cards for the flush.

pokenum -o8 ad as jd 7h - 3h 4c ah ks - 9d 9s td js -- ac 2h 9h
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing Ac 9h 2h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As Ad Jd 7h 139 331 335 0 9 120 0 0.355
Ks 4c Ah 3h 272 275 391 0 435 0 0 0.580
Js 9s Td 9d 27 60 606 0 0 0 0 0.065

Here, you still have greater equity in the pot than 33% (which is break even) - but your margin is tiny.

So what it comes down to is how much you can handle variance. You might be in a situation where you are getting 35.5% equity, you might be in a situation with 58% equity. In both, for the main pot anyway, you are getting the right odds - but in the first case the margin is very small.

An option might be to make the pot sized raise on the flop and flat call the reraise from the short stack. Then you can see the turn and make a decision for the rest of the person's money. Another option is to "slow play" your hand - but in this case, you are merely waiting for a safe turn to pop everyone when you can actually give them the bad odds to call. In all honesty, I'm not sure I like either of these two options, but if you get a safe Qs on the turn, for instance, in the second situation your equity is back up to 47.7% and in the first situation it is as high as 62.5%.
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Postby GooperMC » Tue Apr 12, 2005 11:19 am

starstealer did a very good job of describing the problem with top set with tons of draws out there. He is further right that pushing all in here is a high variance play however I think that it is the right play.

I don't like a flat call for the same reason I like to push with a str8 flush draw in holdem. I don't want to get pushed off a hand when I miss on the turn (or in this case when a scare card comes). There are so few safe cards on the turn that I would fold or raise.

I like the raise here for a few reasons:
- You might be able to get the big stack to fold, small chance but a still something to consider
- There is always the possibility that one of these players are idiots and pushing in with an empty flush draw, A2, or an empty 23, or some other garbage.

If they are both good players the raise is even EV but since this is $50PL I think thte raise is the correct play.
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Tue Apr 12, 2005 11:48 am

I like to just call that flop and then push harder on a safe turn personally. If a low comes you can then get into check-call mode, if a flush hits that puts a low out (as it did) I think you can pass.

ANY flush draw with two low cards is favourite over your hand on the flop. I think your set is weak enough to play a lot more passively with two to come. I also don't think you necessarily want to force both players to fold above all else, as there's a good chance one of them is putting fairly dead money in the pot. Might be nice to get heads up, but I don't see it as a particular priority here.

Seeing the wood for the trees - the crucial salient point is that YOU HAVE POSITION OVER BOTH PLAYERS. You can outplay them later so pushing all in when you're liable not to be very +EV to do so is perhaps not my favoured move.
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Postby Rhound50 » Tue Apr 12, 2005 12:28 pm

Thanks guys
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Postby GooperMC » Wed Apr 13, 2005 5:27 pm

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Postby Rhound50 » Wed Apr 13, 2005 7:26 pm

"Its a pink handbag not backpack damn it." Godlikeroy

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Postby GooperMC » Fri Apr 15, 2005 11:09 am

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Postby Rhound50 » Fri Apr 15, 2005 11:13 am

"Its a pink handbag not backpack damn it." Godlikeroy

"From playing full tilt I wanna smash every garden gnome I see. That travelocity commercial puts me on instant tilt."
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Postby GooperMC » Fri Apr 15, 2005 6:40 pm

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Postby Felonius_Monk » Fri Apr 15, 2005 7:54 pm

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby Rhound50 » Fri Apr 15, 2005 11:56 pm

"Its a pink handbag not backpack damn it." Godlikeroy

"From playing full tilt I wanna smash every garden gnome I see. That travelocity commercial puts me on instant tilt."
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Postby GooperMC » Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:13 pm

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Postby JDLush » Tue Apr 19, 2005 8:39 am

This is probably the best example of 'potential variance' in O8. This is the hand that gives you a killer session when it holds up, and an instant rebuy when it doesn't. If you want to play it that way, then pot bet and reraise on the flop. If you'd prefer to cut down on the swing factor, then call the flop and see what the turn brings.

I would really prefer to play this kind of hand heads up, since as star and others have already said, your hand is significantly weaker with 3 way action. Heads up I almost always bet the pot, in this case I'd probably just call it with a propensity to hit it hard if the turn is safe.

I think the advantage of calling the flop is that you still have a good chance of getting at least one of your opponents' stacks in the middle if a safe card hits for you. If you get what happened here you have the option of a check/call still available. When the 4h hits the turn it's check/fold for me, personally.
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Postby Rhound50 » Wed Apr 20, 2005 1:15 pm

"Its a pink handbag not backpack damn it." Godlikeroy

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