by Aisthesis » Wed Apr 13, 2005 1:54 am
Well, push it in is what I did... and got 2 callers. EP had AK, and LP had 88...
And, of course, an A flopped, so I was out of the tourney.
Actually, I was wondering here even about the fold option, which sounds incredibly weak-tight, but it's almost like Cloutier vs. Brunson on this hand. Anyhow, in THEORY it's not at all improbable that someone has AA. If that's actually the case, then the A flop is essentially meaningless (except that it means that it's less likely that someone has AA, which actually helps my hand). I don't know, I've been having pretty decent luck lately playing very, very cautiously early, which does put me in a short-stack more often than I'd like at a certain point (even if I can grow, it's usually not fast enough to really keep pace with the blinds).
But, in this case, let's say they showed their cards. I should have about a 70% chance of almost tripling up--and a 30% chance of going out or being truly crippled. This early in the tournament, I'm not sure whether it's worth it.
I do see your case for the flat call, though, too. Maybe that's actually the best option. If an A flops, I get away wounded but by no means dead. Am I now going to fold, though, to an all-in re-raise from EP? In that case, he's seriously representing AA, but, given the table texture, it wouldn't have surprized me if he would have done it with his AK.
Well, I don't think my all-in was really a "mistake" in any sense. But here's a little more on my case for folding: Basically, you let the crazies eat themselves up (at the probable expense of being able to grow) and wait until you really need to before getting out on a limb. Doesn't this actually increase one's chances of making the final table?
Perhaps a bit of my current "tournament philosophy": Avoid getting a call on all your chips (or so many of them that you're in horrible shape) until you absolutely have to. I guess the additional question would then be whether it's realistic to strive for, say, a 90% chance of making it to the halfway mark in the tournament (which I'm defining as when half the players are gone). If so, then the all-in on KK actually does have to be a mistake, because I'm going out something like 30% of the time there (as unfortunately actually happened).