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Junk Hands Leak% - Live Poker Forums

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Junk Hands Leak%

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Moderators: excession, LPF Police Department

What is your Junk Hand Leak % ?

0-10%
19
68%
11-20%
4
14%
21-30%
4
14%
30-40%
1
4%
more than 40%
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 28

Postby LottaFagina » Thu Mar 10, 2005 8:01 am

Once I identify a hand that's a leak for me (in my case, I overvalue KJ and play it poorly), what should I do with it? Keep it on my Core/Marginal List or move it to my Junk List?

PS. I used to overvalue KJ and KT, but they accounted for some huge losses. With 5,535 hands played (mostly in $.10/$.25 NL):

$299.62 (Core)
+$56.45 (Marginal)
- $7.00 (Junk)
= 2.0% Junk Leak
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Junk hands yield a profit for me

Postby MecosKing » Tue Mar 15, 2005 3:53 am

My numbers are [exclusing blinds]
+20k core hands
+4900 marginal hands
+3400 junk hands.

the - sample size is 7k junk hands (out of about 16k or so hands in the dbase)

Does this mean im just plain lucky or what? NOTE, this is at short handed limit holdem (10/20 and 15/30) and if im playing these hands from somewhere besides the blinds, im probably raising with them and trying to pickup blinds, or something.
Thats my only guess for why im in the green with 'junk' hands - unless im either incredibly lucky or doing something wrong? I think i followed the filter instructions properly though...

Let me just also say that messin around with PT has helped to show exactly how important position really is. Im a 10k winner from the button, 8k from seat 1, 5k from seat 2, 4k from seat 3, a $430 loser from seat 4, 1k winner in seat 5, $450 loser from seat 6, $472 winner from seat 7, and a total of 16k lost in both blinds! jeez.
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Postby excession » Tue Mar 15, 2005 7:47 am

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I think you are right

Postby MecosKing » Tue Mar 15, 2005 10:46 am

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Postby excession » Tue Mar 15, 2005 11:26 am

Yes - you shouldn't just use my lists of core/marginal/junk hands - the purpose is to make your own (I should perhaps make this more clear in the article).

You have your own PT database - 6 handed you have 3 positions to analyse - Blinds, UTG/UTG+1 (ie EP) and last two (ie LP).

Filter your starting hands so they just show profit/loss from OTB or one off it. Also filter out hands where you called a raise.

You should be able to see at a glance how your hands are doing from LP. You can play with the filters to show those where you just limped in LP and those where you raised.

You can also filter them based on whether or not you were first to act or there was a limper ahead.

I would be surprised if hands like QJo don't show a profit when opened OTB in 6 handed play.

I'd suggest any hand that is showing a profit from LP but a loss from EP is a true marginal hand for you (provided that obviously better hands aren't losers - e.g. if QJo and JTo are making money but J9o and T9o are losers - you should probably keep J8o as junk even if you show a profit with it, but move QJo and JTo up for sure).
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Ohhhhh now i get it.

Postby MecosKing » Tue Mar 15, 2005 4:20 pm

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Postby trantor » Mon Apr 11, 2005 2:10 pm

All $1 and $2 BB games
Not a blind, 8-10 handed
27,950 out of 36,511 hands

TYPE No. Hands WIN/LOSS $ BB/Hand
Core 2,186 2265.03 0.81
Marginal 3,568 202.89 0.06
Junk 22196 -340.28 -0.01
Either blind 8,561 -1871.71 -0.17
All 36,511 255.93 0.01

Leak 13.8%

I'm positive though! Lots of room for improvement:)

The table looks fine as typed but crunches up on preview.
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Postby gdaviet » Thu Apr 14, 2005 8:15 pm

Don't know if this topic is dead, but here's my numbers.

20k hands of .10/.25 NL @ UB and Party (60%/40% respectively)

Core: $815.69
Marginal:$264.33
Junk: ($111.17) (10%)

Now, my only question, concern is how tight I am. My VP$IP not-blind figures is 20% for Core/Marginal/Junk. If I remove the Junk, I drop to 16%. I'd like not to be quite so squeeky tight. Any thoughts on hands to add to my game?? Here's the breakdown:

Core:
Pairs: AA-99
AKs,AKo,AQs,AQo,AJs,ATs (yeah, that's it)

Marginal:
Pairs:99-22
A9s-A2s
Connectors:
Suited includeing 2 gap: down to x6s
Offsuit including 1 gap: 9x

Without listing individual hands, I hope that makes sense (offsuited connector 1gap 9x means -> no hands where the high card isn't at least a 9 - Same for suited except it's the low card being a 6).

I'm profitable from every position except 3 off the button and the SB. The small blind needs some clean-up, since I'm losing $9 without counting the blind money and I only complete it 27% of the time. The 4 seat is explainable from two AKo hands and one AA (A's full loses to quads, and I had about 150% of the buy-in when I pushed in).

Well, there we go. Thoughts, comments, insults?

Thanks

P.S.

Thought it would be interesting to post the same hands, but include the blinds:
20k .10/.25 NL (including play from the blinds)

Core: $946.46
Marginal: $357.32
Junk: ($153.50) (12%)

Everything increased, so playing junk for cheap from the blinds seems like a bad plan too.
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Postby piersmajestyk » Thu Apr 21, 2005 11:34 pm

60,299 hands VIP%: 11.16 All taken from limit holdem

Corp hands +8471.37 all pairs, AKs, AK, AQs, AQ, AJs, A10s, KQs, KJs
Marginal hands +830.54 AJo, A10o, A9s, KQ, QJs, J10s
Junk -125.8 Rest of the hands (yeah I know I am tight :lol: )

Win: 9301.91
Loss: 125.80
% loss to junk hands: 1.35%
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Postby Gandalf » Fri Jun 03, 2005 5:39 pm

I am the undisputed king of the leak!

Note that I am not a regular ring player, I am a tourny player but I play the odd ring game when waiting for tournies to start but my ring stats are quite amusing.

Also, I only have 768 ring hands. This is not enough to create a Core/Marginal/Junk list so I used Phil Hellmuth's definition:

Core: pairs 77 or higher, AK and AQ.
Marginal: Pairs 66 or lower, Ax suited and KQ.

Core = $0
Marginal = $9.88
Junk = ($58.74)

Leak = 594 %

Not statistically significant I know, but I was surprised to see I lost money with AA, KK and AK (and yes I do raise preflop).

Think I'll stick to tourneys!
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Postby stoni1234 » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:19 pm

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Postby thorn » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:49 am

Very good topic. I've hit a rough streak for the last month and a half and I can't blame it on luck, that'd be silly.

Anyway, late contribution. These stats are from FL $1/2 and $2/4. Around 6000 hands, full table.

Core hands: 1,167
Marginal: 67
Junk: -6.50

Total junk leak: 0.05 %

I'm not quite sure about some hands though. I play very tightly, a LOT tighter than the original poster. For example, I haven't voluntarily played JTo once in 6000 hands. Too tight perhaps. And hands like 65s are marginal winners for me and I've seen the flop with it ~35% of the time. Marginal or junk? It's on my marginal list right now, as is large losers for me like 88 and 77 (I openlimp with 88 in EP, and mostly 77 also, always limp is there is 1+ limper before me). 55 and down go on junk. My VP$IP with marginal hands is 42%, with junk 0.91%. I think it's safe to say playing junk hands isn't a loser for me. I'd be interested to see an analysis of blind hands, I think a big loser for me is playing marginal hands against raises in the blinds.
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Postby SebQtaneus » Sat Oct 08, 2005 1:08 am

Was going through Excessions Poker Tracker Articles and ran across this thread. Thought I'd give it a bump as it is very interesting and the exercise was extremely helpful. Am pretty new to Limit. Only been playing it now for ~ 1 month. After going through this exercise, I really expect my numbers to rise sharply.
This is virtually my entire Limit Hold'em career so far.
3156 hands played from outside the blinds.
1/2 Limit played at various sites.

Core: $437.30
Marginal: $122.44
Junk: -$118.00

Junk Hand Leak : 27% YIKES!!!!!!!

Now to just put a plug in it!!!!

Excession, I haven't been all the way through the articles yet, but is there a way to apply this to the Blinds? Answer may be obvious, but it's late, I'm exhausted and I can't figure it for myself.
Thanks for the great resource you've provided everyone here.
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Postby mapleleaf » Sun Oct 23, 2005 11:15 pm

My Junk Hands actually net me money..but its likely because I am very disciplined and rarely play them unless I feel as if I have a read.

Plus I have only played 3000 hands that fit the Non-blind / 8+ players filter

Core - +$130.93
Marginal - +$27.37
Junk - +29.15

In Addition, some of the hands you have listed as Marginal I consider junk..but I bet everyone has some deviation from your settings
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Leaky

Postby yordestine » Thu Nov 10, 2005 1:07 am

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