$100NL 6-max @ Tribeca.

i open-raise from CO to $5 with [Jh]. button calls. he's reasonably decent but im by no means afraid of him. he has $98 and i cover with $250.

flop: [Jd][9d].
pot: $11

i bet $10, he calls.

turn:
pot: $31

i check, he checks.

river: offsuit 4.

i check, he bets $18. i think for 3 seconds and shove. thoughts?

jon

I don't like this shove.

You hope that he calls you with Ax. If he can't fold an A it's ok, but if 'he is decent' he should be able to fold it to your river check-raise.
Any 9 or stronger will definetly call you.

So it seems to be a classical case of folding all weaker hands and getting a call from stronger.

I doubt that he has a strong hand here but if you check-raise to 40-50 you'll sure get a call from an A, and may be even a stubborn J. Additional bonus is that 9x might be afraid to push, thinking that you have a full and you will save some money.

I agree that it's unlikely that he has trips or better. Very unlikely, in fact. But I can't find any hand other than that where he will call your CRAI. In fact, I think he folds to your CRAI pretty close to 100% of the time with anything you beat.

So say you're ahead here 95% of the time. That's great. But if your CRAI earns you $0 more than a check/call the 95% of the time you're ahead, but costs you your stack the 5% of the time you're behind, it's not such a good play....

What hands do you expect him to call with? AK? AQ? AT? A4? J4?

If you want to get a call from Ax then just lead the river don't CRAI.

jmho, and more h than usual because I rarely play 6-max.

I think youre better off betting the river. He'll call you with any ace and probably any J.

He may not bet those hands if you check to him. Well, he'll bet an ace but probably not a J because you could easily have KK.

I dont see the point in a CRAI. Its easy to say a check raise is good after seeing that he bet the river, but without knowing if he would be or not, I think betting the river yourself is better.