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Drawing to a draw :) - Live Poker Forums

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Drawing to a draw :)

Postby Aisthesis » Thu Oct 19, 2006 6:20 am

I'll be interested to see what you guys think of this one. 7-player game.

I'm UTG+1 with a full stack and 8c7d6d5h. UTG folds and I raise max to $7. LP, who seems a little weak-ish tight-ish ($180) and BB, who seems solid ($285) call, so it's a 3-way pot.

The flop comes so-so for me with 9d4c2c. Well, I don't have clubs, but I can pick up a diamond draw on the turn, and this flop so far is right in my sweet spot on this wrap. My feeling here: It's nothing yet, but there are a lot of turns I can like. Pot is $22, BB checks to me, and I check. LP bets $14 at it, and BB calls. It doesn't look to me like either of these guys really likes his hand a lot. LP probably has some moderate piece, as does BB. I'm also getting incredibly good odds here, since it now costs me $14 for a chance at $50, so somewhere around 3.5:1--I'm going to check the odds against their actual hands as soon as I'm finished here.

Anyhow, I decide to call, and, really, I think it's a pretty good call even though I have absolutely nothing yet.

Turn again has its pros and cons: Ts. Well, it's not a club, but someone can easily have 2 pair at this point, I figure. I do have a lot of outs to straights, just few to nut straights (only a 6 or a 3 and those can't be clubs). But it's checked around.

River 8s, so I made the ignorant end of a straight and clubs didn't get there. Checked to me, I check it again.

That's I guess the main "issue" I have on this hand. Both opponents seem fairly civilized, so they don't really seem like the kind who would raise me off of a winner here. But I think I have some call equity here from losers (2 pair) if I bet maybe $20 at it (pot is at $61). Better to leave well enough alone? Or do I need to bet at it?

Anyhow, BB has AdKdQs2s for bottom pair with runner-runner diamonds (glad those didn't hit), LP has AsJs9s8h for TP on the flop and 2 pair on the river. Had I bet $20 there, I think BB definitely folds, but LP probably calls actually. On the other hand, his hand also shows the danger of someone with a 9 having spiked a bigger straight on the river, too. So, the bet of $20 also has its downsides.
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Postby Aisthesis » Thu Oct 19, 2006 6:30 am

I have 30.78% equity on the flop, LP has 34.68%, and BB 34.53%. Those are also roughly the kind of hands I figured. Anyhow, I'm getting 3.5:1 and am a little worse than 2:1 against their holdings.

Also, if it were HU between me and LP on that same board, I would have 33.29% equity, so I'd still have odds to call against his actual hand, although I'm not sure whether that would be good or bad. I think it's a little more dodgy against 1 opponent OOP.
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Postby Kuso » Thu Oct 19, 2006 7:27 am

wwcrd?

"that basically sums up poker for me - 12" needle in the testicle." <nutkick> mvp
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Postby Aisthesis » Thu Oct 19, 2006 9:15 am

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Postby Felonius_Monk » Thu Oct 19, 2006 12:30 pm

Yes, it seems a reasonable flop call. I don't bet the river at the moment but I admit I'm a little gun shy on that front from getting check-raised a few times lately. I think it's probably reasonable.

As for betting the flop, I think it's marginal either way and depends largely on your opponents - if either are tricky or the sort of players who may look to trap a possible AA after your preflop raise, then I think you're looking to take a free card and you probably don't have the fold equity you need to bet this. If they're the sort that just lay down when they don't have a lot and who play pretty mechanically, it might not be a bad spot to bet and rep an overpair.
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