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set vs big draw

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set vs big draw

Postby Hofstra » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:42 pm

PLO $100 on UB.
My stack: $105. Opponent: $120.
I have [As][Kh][7s][7h] in the SB. 3 limpers, I complete, and the BB raises to $5. I've played with him before, and such a raise usually means a strong AAxx or KKxx hand. 2 callers, and I decide to call and hope for a good flop.

Flop is [Td][7d][4c]. (Pot is about $20.)

I have middle set but I decide first to see what the others do because I don't want to get involved in heavy multiway action. So I check, opponent bets pot, and it is folded to me. Since I put him on a strong AA hand I think he probably has the nut flush draw and an overpair and my set is probably good. I raise the pot, opponent calls, which confirms my read.

Turn: [9s]. (Pot is now $120). Puts out a straight. I have $40 left and push it in. Opponent calls. River didn't change anything, and opponent took the pot with [Ad][Ah][Jd][8s].

My reasoning on the turn was that
- Even though his call on the flop means he must have more than just a naked flush draw, I have a decent chance to be ahead still
- I'm going to call a $40 bet because I have odds to chase the boat, so I might just as well put it in myself.

Any thoughts? How would you play this with deeper stacks, when you can't get all the money in on the turn and might face a massive raise or a huge bet on the river?

Pieter
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:59 pm

Think you played it perfectly all along. It's hard to put him on J8 or 86 so I think betting the turn is fine.

If the stacks are deep, and GIVEN your read, I think betting pot on the turn is not so bad either. You can of course put down to a raise. Betting 2/3 of the pot would be ideal, but this looks too weak to me (if your opponent has any aggressive tendencies or is liable to make a tricky bluff) so full pot again is fine.

Your decision to bet the turn because you're going to put it in anyway is sensible. I talked about this in one of my articles, I think. Bear in mind you should only do this with a MADE hand, and not a draw!

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