Omaha Hi/Low $1-$2 PL (real money), hand #1,192,768,424
Table Tabriz, 28 Oct 2006 3:05 PM ET

Seat 1: 4 Finger Jo ($57.80 in chips)
Seat 3: holdon12 ($66.40 in chips)
Seat 6: tordelius ($127.10 in chips)
Seat 7: L3sPaGnoL974 ($85.00 in chips)
Seat 8: MmmmKitty , , , ($100.00 in chips)
Seat 9: CONARTIST11 ($155.45 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
holdon12 posts blind ($1), tordelius posts blind ($1).

PRE-FLOP
L3sPaGnoL974 calls $1, MmmmKitty bets $5, CONARTIST11 folds, 4 Finger Jo folds, holdon12 folds, tordelius calls $4, L3sPaGnoL974 calls $4.

FLOP [board cards , ,
tordelius checks, L3sPaGnoL974 bets $16, MmmmKitty calls $16, tordelius bets $80, L3sPaGnoL974 calls $64 and is all-in, MmmmKitty ?????

tordelius is a bad LAG and L3sPaGnoL974 is a fish.

OESD + backdoor nut low draw + 2 backdoor flush draws against two bad players enough to play here?

even though you said tordelius is a bad LAG, i am willing to respect his raise on the flop. L3sPaGnoL974 lead out for the pot into the pre-flop raiser. that shows strength. tordelius could have just smooth called and closed the action getting 3:1 odds but instead he chose to re-open the betting knowing it's likely all of the chips will probably go into the pot. tordelius has a real hand.

if you were calling all-in in a 3-way pot getting 3:1 on your money, then i'd say sure gamble it up. honestly you probably don't have much more than the 25% equity required to make a break even call. so it's probably about ev netural at best and likely -ev, although only by a little bit.

given stack sizes, i think you should fold when it comes back around to you. i can guarantee you're a dog heads-up against tordelius even though it will only be a $30 side pot i think the fact you'll be a dog in the side pot plus your general ev neutral to slightly -ev in the main pot equals a fold.

Are you all kidding?

Is this not the easiest call ever?

Hmm perhaps I was overweighting the probability of a set being out there in my original analysis. Hero's equity is much higher than I expected in the few examples Gooper gave. I was thinking something along the lines of... starting with about 33% equity for the OESD, then discounting it for boat draws and the possibility of our draw being shared. That dropps it down to ~ 20% in my mind and then I add in our backdoor draws to get our overall equity to around ~25%. But it looks like that off the cuff analysis is too conservative since of course a set isn't out there 100% of the time. Thanks for setting me straight (a pun, lol).