ok.... i'm "working", so i barely had time to read all of this (certainly not well), and i have less time for a response, but i'll give it a go.

first, i like the AI on the turn for two reasons:

1) i would think that top set and probably middle set would raise this fllop (i would), so i think you're set is likely good and you have redraws. furthermore, you're going to have a hard time getting any action if a high flush card comes or if the board pairs.

2) you've got a two-way hand. basically any river card other than a non-pairing flush card is going to put you in a tough spot even though it is very likely you'll be good for at least half if not a scoop (e.g., a paired board). this, combined with 1 make me want to push the turn.


as for the river given the turn action, i tend to want to push barring a solid read. here's my take on this:

- i think check-folding this is giving up A LOT of equity. there is not shortage of players at the higher limits who will rep the A2 if checked to (assuming that Mend would usually attempt at least a value bet with an A2xx), and you'll be occassionally folding a scooping hand. i realize that there are also times that you'll get scooped, and there's math that you can use to estimate the value of blah blah blah, but any A2xx still in the hand would pretty much have to be a four card hand since they would not have continued on the flop in a HU pot with a bare A2. as we all know, don't fear the 4-card hand. the real issue is the marginal hands...

- let's say you can see villain's hand -- sometimes he'll have a better set, sometimes he'll have 2pr. if you bet, you know that there's a chance he'll call with either, and there's a chance he'll fold with either. the catch is that you don't really know what the probability of either of these events are. if you bet the river, you are giving villain a chance to make a mistake in these marginal situations. if you check, then you give him the chance to check behind and possibly take half that he otherwise would not have gotten. this strikes me as a HUGE mistake.

- my first caveat is that i would check-call an aggressive player who i know likes to rep scare cards. it's a crapshoot, but there's no way i'm folding.

- my second caveat is that i'd check-fold to certain tight players who only bet on the end with a two-way hand with the nuts at least one way (e.g., a non-tilting rainaruby from party). there aren't a lot of these players out there, but they do exist.


anyway, there are a lot of tell-tale stats that PAhud can show you that will help you make your river decision (esp. with the caveats mentioned above).


also, typing "ouch" in the chatbox when you actually were concerned by the raise was a terrible leak/tell, imo.

ok... that's all i have time for. please don't read too much into this since i had to type it quickly. let me know if i need to clarify any points.

I don't think it narrows my range at all other than I don't have A2QQ suited to the Ace. Moreover, unless HE has 10/10, that information is totally useless to him. (Assuming someone would take that at face value-- which if you watched the WSOP main event this year seems to be the exception rather than the rule). Not to mention, that remark probably only helps me in that I think it made a bet on the end more likely from him-- which I was committed to call.

Finally, the 10 seconds or so that I had to pause to decide what to do pretty much said "ouch" anyway, and was a more reliable tell-- not that it really could help, because if he had one of the 2-3 hands I was behind, he didn't need that information because he had the stone cold nuts.

Not a useful tell there, I promise you.