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Two miniraises

Postby Stoneburg » Thu Nov 09, 2006 6:34 pm

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Postby GodlikeRoy » Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:12 pm

Poker is silly.

It is not enough to be good at chess, you must also play well.

Somewhere in the world someone is training when you are not. When you race him, he will win.

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Postby Xaston » Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:17 pm

Boy, you got me confused with a man who repeats himself.
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Postby The Golden 1 » Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:28 pm

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Postby Stoneburg » Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:33 pm

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Postby Zmej » Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:40 am

Hand1. I like Roy's reasoning and I agree with a fold as played.

Hand2. Stone, it would help to know what exact cards are suited. (I will assume [4h] [5h] [6s] flop. And say you have [7d] [8d].)

Here I can't agree with the range :
6x, 77, flush draw, etc, more often than he has 44,55,66,65. He could also have 23 for a lower straight.
I think that it is almost never a flush draw (flop minraise could be a flush draw, turn minraise is a monster every time), same is true for 77. I also doubt that it could be 23, well, megadonks play 23s for a raise, but this is rare.

So I would say that with his range he can beat AA here. So it is 44, 55, 66, 64s, 65s, 67s, 68s, A6s, I would also add 23s but with lower weight let say 2 combinations instead of 4.

We are drawing dead vs 44, 55, 66, 64s, 56s – 12 combinations.
We are good vs 67s, 68s, A6s, 23s (we count only 2 of them ) - 9 combinations.

Making simple calculations we see that push is almost 0 EV, or slightly positive +EV if we add a random donk factor (Harrington’s 10%). (One need to include 10 redraw outs if villain has trips.)

I like another line that has higher EV. We call this minraise and push a non pairing river and check/fold if the board pairs, I think that villian will check behind with 23s, but even if he pushes it will not change much. ( I assume that villain will not be able to fold his trips even if a flush comes or another scare card.)
"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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Postby Stoneburg » Fri Nov 10, 2006 6:08 am

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