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If You Have An Out, You Have A Winner! - Live Poker Forums

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If You Have An Out, You Have A Winner!

No matter what you play or where you play it, if you want to record your day by day poker exploits, this is the place!

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Postby MTPaid » Sun Nov 12, 2006 7:55 pm

Awesome NL Session!!!
Just played 154 hands. In those 154 hands, I flopped......
- Top 2 pair w/ AK
- The nut straight w/ 63s
- An OESD w/ 2 OC's w/ KQo
- The nut flush draw w/ 2 OC's
- A set of Jacks

Results:
- Top 2 pair w/ AK WINNER! +$12.95
http://www.pokerhand.org/?609290
I stacked a half-stack who had AQ
- The nut straight w/ 63s LOSER! -$13.60
http://www.pokerhand.org/?609293
[6d][3d] in CO on a [4c][2h][5s] flop. I lost half a stack to [2c][2d]
- An OESD w/ 2 OC's w/ KQo LOSER! -$8.65
I missed, 0 for 1 on big draws tonight.
- The nut flush draw w/ 2 OC's LOSER! -$4.00
Whiff, 0 for 2 on big draws tonight. Missed my only other flopped flush draw as well. 0 for 3 total tonight.
- A set of Jacks LOSER! -$23.15
http://www.pokerhand.org/?609299
I had a funny feeling he had to have Kings before I even overbet the flop. So many people that would go broke with KQ on that hand, but not against me.

I really suck! It got real quiet for a minute and I swear I heard the deck telling me to go fuck myself.

Poker Through The Eyes Of A Fish
Hmm, I've been playing with this maniac for almost an hour and he's only raised one hand so far. He must have been waiting for the right hand to bluff with. I have A6o.....GET HIM!.....I knew he only had Tens. Did that guy really think he could bluff me?
I PFRed 9 out of 154 hands. Take away the JJ hand and out of the other 4 that went to the flop, 3x the caller bet the pot into me. Am I up against a monster every time or can they actually see my cards?

FTOPS Satellites
Played in a couple of satellites to event #2.
1 - Finished 2nd in a SNG - got my buyin back.
2 - Won a short-handed SNG - got a ticket to a $26 satellite.
3 - $26 satellite - didn't know it was a turbo. Built up a decent stack in the 1st 20 minutes, lost a chunk to table bully, went cold decked for about 10 minutes (apparently in turbo's that = DEATH), open pushed QJo and bully had AK. I never play turbo's. I hate them.
4 - Playing a super satelllite for Event #3 at 9:30 EST.
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Postby Tyrannic » Sun Nov 12, 2006 9:43 pm

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Postby MTPaid » Tue Nov 14, 2006 8:21 pm

Thanks Tyrannic. It can be time consuming, but very therapeutic (sp?).

Banging Head Against Wall
Today was the most frustrating $8 I've ever won. I just can't seem to perfect the fundamental poker skills of avoiding the suckout and folding everytime I have two pair or trips. I'm losing money over my last 2K hands w/ 3 of a kind (trips on board or sets) AND flushes. How sick is that? There's always a bigger boat in the water. There are just so many people that are willing to stack off with A6 when they hit top pair yet I keep running my big hands against bigger monsters. Today I saw 1 guy stack off with Q9 on a Q high flop. I saw another one stack off on Q4 on a J43 flop. I saw another one stack off A9 preflop vs a guy playing 8/2 over 200 hands. Why can't I run into these people? Oh wait, I did. He tried to stack off with J6 preflop and beat me. More on that later. The only decent pot I won was because some guy checked his set of Aces until I had the nuts. I didn't even put any money into the pot until then.

Screw you #1
Pretty early on a fairly aggressive player so far raised 4x from EP. I called w/ [Td][Th].
Flop is 377 P = $2.35
He bets $1.75 and I call. I figure if I raise, he will play back with hands that beat me and fold 2 OC's. I think he has 2 OC's and I want him to bluff his chips off.
Turn 6 P = $5.85
He bets $3. I call again. I'm have a feeling he has OC's which makes me 86% here.
River Q P = $11.85
Well there's a 50/50 chance that the Q isn't his card if he has overs. He bets $3 again and I call. He has AQ. 6 out winner. Knew about what he had, made him bluff off way behind on the Flop and Turn and lost.

Worst hand in poker (72o) in the BB. I get a free flop and turn and end up with 2 pair on 8237 rainbow board. Lost $4.75 to 87o.

Screw You Hand #2
This is just sick and I can't even do it justice. You gotta see this one. Guy just tried to stack off with AJo and lost to KK. Now I catch him short-stacked. When you can't win these hands, what the hell can you win. Another case of 6 outs on the river.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?612992
J6o ladies and gentlemen.

Here's another ugly one. 53/10/25 min-raises UTG, 3 callers + me in the BB w/ [Ah][9h] makes it 5 to flop.
[Qd][5h][As] P = $2.50
I don't like this flop, but it gets checked around which makes me like it more.
Turn [3c]
I bet $1.50 and only the PFRer calls.
River [Ac] P = $5.50
I bet $4 and she calls. Crazy (expletive) was raising min-raising 42s UTG. Does this type of thing only happen to me? 2 pair - LOSER, trip Aces - LOSER

Amusing - PFR AKo and a guy with $2.80 pushes so I have to call. He has TT. I can't win coinflips either, lol.

Saw a free flop w/ K7o in the blinds, 1 LP limper. Flop is 75A checked around. Turn 7. Checked to limper who bets $1. I call. River 3. I over-bet pot, trying to make it look like a steal, he min-raises me, I just call. He has 55.
2 pair = 0-1
trips = 1-2 (I actually did win a decent sized pot with trip 5's vs an idiot. I had to turn a boat on 5522 board to give me any confidence in it though).

Ballsy Play Of The Day
Original raiser was 38/24 after 75 hands. I knew he had nothing, but he had put it all in PF w/ 22 and A9o so far.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?613012

Here's the biggest pot I won today. This was basically the difference between winning and losing today. I had to crack a set of Aces to do it, but he made it ridiculously easy wouldn't you agree?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?613015
I didn't have to put a penny into the pot until I had the nuts, then I had to hold my breath and pray the board didn't pair.

Since the last time I posted I played a $6+.60 2 table SNG satellite to the FTOPS and lost. It was a limit event and the guy that decided to cap every pot w/ hands like J2 and 22 built up an overwhelming lead and won it easily.

Played the Midnight Madness at FT for the 2nd time and cashed for the 2nd time. Didn't make much either time though due to the prize structure. You really need to almost make the final table to make any real money.

Also played another limit session that was full of unrealized potential. In the 1st 130 hands I was dealt AK, AQ (3x), KK (2x), QQ (2x), JJ, TT (2x) and couldn't do more than break even. I was actually -3.8 bb with the previous hands. I was raising so many times that they thought I was a maniac and they all decided to come after me or call down on some of the weaker holding like TT and AQ.
Talk about a sick hand. How about 3 players all w/ the same hand (AQs) and we all hit a GSSD on the river just to hike up the rake and make the site a winner.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?613033

Quickly, for the month so far....
.50/1 Limit - 1,115 hands 16/6/25 +$11.05 +0.99 bb/100
$25NL - 1,826 hands 24/5/22 -$78 -8.54 bb/100
MTT/SNG - 23 total 47.8% ITM -$32.40
Bonus Cleared $20

Totals - -$79.35
For some reason it seems that every month I suck for the first couple of weeks then make it all back at the end of the month and then some. I'm not sure what it is. Lot of suckouts, I'm limiting my losses with TP and Overpairs vs better hands. I just have trouble limiting losses w/ 2 pair or better sometimes even though I think I lost the minimum on those hands I posted today.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
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Postby MTPaid » Wed Nov 15, 2006 12:21 am

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby MTPaid » Wed Nov 15, 2006 10:00 pm

Practice and Learn
That's what today's session was.
PRACTICE - I got to practice raising with AQ/AK, QQ, TT and then folding on the flop when 45/13 bets into me. Fortunately the poker gods gave me many chances to practice this today. I must have looked like a maniac. My PFR at all 3 tables was around 10ish. For the second straight limit session I was getting tons of powerhouse starting hands that weren't materializing.
LEARNING - I learned that pocket 2's is a raising hand from early middle position. And it gets even better when they flop a set vs my AQ in the BB when I flop TP. I also learned that to a 66/14 player, AK is a limping hand. I lost a decent pot to that guy too with AJ. I was also on the wrong end of a hand where someone limped in MP after 2 limpers w/ AA. Everything else they raised with. Nearly everyone tonight had a PFR% over 10. They must have been using a pinnochle deck. And the VP$IP's looked more like MIT test scores, but that wasn't helping me much tonight.

My biggest losses on the night were
- TT vs 77. 77 flopped set and no overcards showed on board till the river.
- KK vs Q9. This was a little bit of tilt. Raise, cold-call by idiot, re-raise by me. Board QxQ9x. I should have let go, but I just got a little sick of being donked into everytime I raised.
- AQ vs 22. Mentioned earlier. A72 flop.
- T9 vs AA. I was in the BB and he just limped in late with the Aces. Flop was T8x w/ 2 spades. I put him on the flush draw trying to get the free card and 3 bet the flop.
- AT vs AK. AK was 66/14 and limped in early. I had AT in BB and flopped an Ace. I gave him credit for nothing, but feeling the need to call down with 2 random cards as he had been doing.

BIggest wins....
- QJs in a multi-way pot. 6 players and I flopped the nut straight, 8-Q, and held off the flush even though the board paired on the turn.
- 86s in the BB. 3 way raised pot. I turned the flush and a donk in MP made it a nice big pot for me. Guy who raised AA in LP was pretty upset.
- Q9s OTB. 2 limpers and I flopped the nut striaght again. UTG went to the river with AKs which he was probably intending on limp-re-raising with, but never got to.
- 66 CO in a raised pot w/ 2 other callers. Flopped my lone set of the day at a very opportune time.
- AA vs QJ. My only Aces of the day. J66 flop. This is the reason I will call these idiots down with an over-pair sometimes. Guy called the flop and then c/r a blank turn and bet out again on the river with TPGK.

In between I threw away a lot of big pairs TT-QQ when overcards hit the flop and AQ/AK many times when rags flopped and I was bet into.

Now that I'm looking at PT, it was really the AQo that killed me. 7x and my only 2 wins were when I picked it up preflop. AKo actually did well for me. 6 for 8 and evened me out for the AQ losses. TT-KK was only hitting 50% (5 for 10). Luckily I only tilted and called down when I was beat once.

Basically a whole lot of frustration for nothing.
Session numbers:
465 hands 17/8/24 -$3.30 -0.71 bb/100

Total Full Tilt limit numbers:
1,580 16/7/25 +$7.75 +0.49 bb/100
Wouldn't even be worth it if it weren't for the bonus clearing aspect of it. Goal is to have at least $800 in the FT account and be around +3 to +5 bb/100 after 5K+ hands before I move up.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
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Postby MTPaid » Thu Nov 16, 2006 7:43 pm

I've picked up $57.34 since my last post.

Midnight Madness at FT. Finished 61st out of 1,011. I'm now 3 for 3 in cashes in this MTT, but as I've already said, you really need to get close to the FT to really make any money. Netted $15.29.

I went after what I was pretty sure was a coinflip late and I was right......BUT I lost:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?616390
Summary: Blinds 500/1000 Ante 125. I have 7,495 left after ante w/ [6h][6d] 2 off the Button. UTG pushes for 5,955 total. It's folded to me.
1 - I figure I'm probably not going to get a better chance to try to double up while my stack can still be meaningful. I was already in the money and wasn't worried about moving up as much as I wanted to make the Final Table at this point.
2 - An UTG push from an even shorter stack smells of desperation. If I'm very unlucky he has a better pair, but most likely he has 2 OC's or if I'm really lucky, even something like A5.
He had [Ah][Qh] so immediately my 4 card flush possibilities are gone :( and he hit his Q on the flop.

That hand left me w/ 1,665 and [3h][3c] the next hand.
Medium stack limps UTG, I push my 3's which aren't even 2x BB, CO calls 1,665, Button pushes 4,635, UTG calls, CO folds. Well, at least I have a chance of making a decent stack out of nothing if I hit a set here. I can take almost 10K out of that pot if I win, but I know I'm probably in deep doo-doo.
UTG - [Ac][As]
Button - [6h][6s]
Damn, once again my 4 card flush possibilities are gone!
Board: [9h][4h][8h] :( :( :( :( :( [3s] :shock: :shock: :D :D :D [Qh] :evil: :evil: :evil:


Solid NL session tonight, even though I caught myself starting to tilt near the end and stopped. Picked up almost a full stack, was actually up a stack and a half at one point before I gave some back.
274 hands 26/5/14 +$22.05 +16.09 bb/100

Flopped a couple of sets early and really a story of 2 hands.
Total wins $5+ = 4
1 - SB [9d][9s]
http://www.pokerhand.org/?616417
2 off the button (143 hands - 20/10/9 w/ $38.20 behind) PFR to $.85. CO (unknown) calls, I call.
Flop [7c][9c][Qs] P = $2.80
I've been mostly leading with my sets lately and not making any money. Raiser was weak tight so I didn't want him to get off that cheap so I decided a rare slow play was in order. I checked, but once original PFRer bet $1.90 and CO called ($12.20 behind), I decided it was time to C/R. I popped to $6.75 (about the size of the pot) and only CO called.
Turn [7h] P = $18.20
Got my boat, I'll check and let him hang himself which he does for his last $7.35. He shows [Ts][8h] drawing dead and I make $16.35 off my flopped set.

Flopped a set of 9's again the very next time in the SB at the same table, but had to play that one faster as the only limper was the button at the board was pretty scary. Still got him to call 2 pot sized bets and picked up $4.55 .

2 - [Ah][Td] UTG+1 8 handed.
This is why I sometimes take top pair a little too far at the $25NL level.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?616439
Opponent was an unknown and sometimes your not in as bad shape as it feels by the river. Just when you think he can't bet anything but a J there unless he's bluffing. But if he thought he was behind, why would he call 2 bets? Probably a hand I can confidently fold on the River at a higher level.

3 - [8s][8d] 2 off the button.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?616448
MP2 (unknown at this point) limps, I limp, Button limps, both blinds see the flop 5 handed.
Flop [8c][Ad][Tc] P = $1.25
Checked to me. Not a good spot to slowplay a set so I bet pot. I figure that Ace helps me because anyone with one will call. SB (shortie w/ $10 left) and MP2 (full $25 to start) call. I have them both covered.
Turn [Kd] P = $5
2 checks, I bet $4. Only MP2 calls.
River [Qc] P = $13
Disgusting card. Check, check. MP2 shows [Ah][Qd]. WTF???!!!! I should have stacked him! How do I find the guy that plays AQ like this when I flop a bigger hand? +$6.85

4 - [Qs][Qh] UTG. Another example of why I sometimes will take an overpair too far at the $25NL level.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?616453
I raise to $1 UTG (7 handed), new player in MP calls, BB calls.
Flop [3d][8h][7s] P = $3.25
Check, I bet $2.50 ($15.60 behind), MP calls ($14.15 behind), BB folds.
Turn [2h] P = $8.10
I bet $6 and he pushes. I call for $8.15 more. He shows [Ah][3h] and the [4s] his the river. +$16.95
Again at higher levels I can be pretty sure I'm beat, but his flop call was pretty bad as I because he's not getting all that much even if he stacks me, which if his Ace hits, isn't happening.

This is a real positive and a negative here at $25NL. You just can't tell who is going to stack off w/ top pair or less when you have an overpair vs. who is going to put you in with only something that beats your overpair. So many times I feel like I have to go further than I would like with these hands. There are some people I will definitely fold against and some I'll call easily, but this is only after you really have a read and some PT stats on them. If you don't know the player, then what is your basic assumption at this level?

No losses of $5 or more, but 7x I dropped between $3 and $4.75 mostly near the end when I got a little fed up with a couple of players.

The guy 2 to my left (SB everytime I was CO) and I tangled 5x. 3x I open-PFR w/ a big Ace (AT-AK) and he called from the SB each time. The first 2x I missed and he c/r my c-bet. The 1x I had something it was like he knew and folded. We got into another hand where I raised w/ AK from MP and he called from LP. Flop Q3Q and he called a flop bet and pushed the turn. The 5th time I bet a made hand into him and he folded so it was like he could see my damn cards all 5x.

Another guy across the table from me was playing very tightly, but after almost 200 hands he had a habit of betting the pot on the flop whenever he was in the BB in an unraised pot and nobody ever really challenged him. So stupid me in MP w/ 44 decides that I'm calling when he does his usual move on a J33 flop. He checks the turn and I start patting myself on the back and bet the pot. He calls and then we both check the river. He shows 83 for trips 3's.

I realized at this point that I had slowly dumped about 1/2 stack to these 2 and stopped playing when I realized I was just looking for a reason to play pots against them.

I may try another FTOPS qualifier later, but other than that I'm probably done for the day. I also may post my NFL system later since I'm doing rather well this season. I posted part of it in ED's journal, but rather than hijack there, I'll put it in here if I have time in case anyone is interested.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

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"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby MTPaid » Fri Nov 17, 2006 12:20 am

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Location: New Jersey

Postby MTPaid » Fri Nov 17, 2006 1:16 am

NFL SYSTEM
I hope I don't jinx anything by posting this, but it's worked pretty well this season and in seasons past except for last year when favorites blindly covered over 60% of the games.

Websites Needed:
Sportsinsights.com - They have a free and paid membership. We only need the free membership here.
Statfox.com - They also have a pay service, their Foxsheets, which are the basis for their whole business, but we will only be using some of the free stats they provide and the Foxden Forum with some of the best handicappers I've ever had the privelege of knowing.

1 - BETTING AGAINST THE PUBLIC
We need the basic membership to Sportinsights for this part of it. We look at their NFL grid which shows the % of bets on every team and every game accross all of the top internet sportsbooks. Obviously we are only interested in the NFL here. Usually I look for something more (REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT), but it has been much simpler this season. Look for Road Teams (Favorites or Dogs) with 70%+ public support and FADE THEM!
Road teams with 70%+ public support: 13-24
Road teams with 75%+ public support: 5-18
Road teams with 80%+ public support: 1-4
*Home teams with overwhelming public support are about break even this season.
I normally take a look sometime late in the week, but wait until Sunday morning to take the final results here. If a team is hovering around 73-76% I may or may not fade them. It's not an exact science. Possible fades this week as of right now: Indy 83%, Pitt 74% (NE, Chi, Sea, and NYG are also worth keeping an eye on)

2 - SUPER SITUATIONS
These come directly from the Statfox Foxsheets, but there are so many of them that it just becomes confusing. So this year, I have just been sticking with a few Super Situations that were published in their yearly Football Annual magazine, the "Statfox Edge". These situations have proven to hit at 60% or better over the past 20+ years. You need to spend about a half hour per week doing the research for these. Go to Statfox.com and hover your mouse over "NFL" in the upper left hand corner and then click on "GAME MATCHUP". All the info you need is right there and in each game's "Matchup Report". Any other information you need can come directly from any site that supplies NFL boxscores.
A) Play AGAINST any NFL road team coming off an upset win IF they have a winning record on the season. Just 5-7 so far this season (2-0 last week), 8-3 last season, 201-125 since 1983.
B) Play AGAINST home favorites between 3.5 - 10 pts AFTER a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers - playing vs. an opponent coming off 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or more. 0-1 this season, 3-1 last season, 76-36 since 1983.
C) Play UNDER in any game involving 2 teams that score 23-27 ppg. Both teams must be in this range. For example, this week, Cin scores 24 PPG and NO scores 25.4 PPG so that would be an Under play. 1-2 this season, 9-6 last season, 161-116 since 1983.
D) Play ON a dog or pick'em allowing 90 yds rushing or less per game AFTER a game allowing 50 or less rushing yards. 3-1 this season, 2-1 last season, 66-31 since 1983.
E) Play OVER when the road team allowed 3 pts or less in the 1st HALF of their last game and the home team scored 14 pts or less in their last game. 8-4 this season, 19-8 last season, 110-70 over last 10 seasons.

3 - COMPOSITE OUTPLAY FACTOR (COF)
This is another Statfox concept. It takes some basic math to figure out and all you need is the same matchups page to figure these out. These have performed incredibly over the years when you find a dog where the line may be off. Most of the time it will just tell you that the favorite should be favored by more, but it hasn't typically worked out that way in the past. Again, I am looking for dogs (typically 3 or more) that the COF tells me should be favored or the line may be off by 6 or more. When the line is close, I may use some discretion here, but I've gone 4-0 finding these dogs this week, including the ones I posted in ED's journal last week. Here it is: (I will use Indy vs Dallas as an example)

Take the road team's (INDY) points per game on Offense
Subtract their previous opponents average points given up on Defense (this info is on the individual matchups page).
INDY O 27.7 PPG - Opp DEF avg 19.8 = INDY +7.9

Take the road team's (INDY) points per game on Defense
Subtract their previous opponents average points scored on Offense
INDY D 18.9 - Op OFF avg 21 = INDY -2.1 (Number is negative because INDY has been giving up more points on Defense than their opponents typically score).

INDY +7.9 -2.1 = INDY +5.8

We then do the same for Dallas and get
DAL +6.2 -0.1 = Dal +6.1

When we put both numbers together it shows that Dallas should be about a 0.3 favorite. We all know that number doesn't exist in the NFL, but just bear with me. Ahh, but we forgot to factor in home field advantage. I assign either 3,4, or 5 points for HFA. Dallas is 2-1 at home this season blowing out Hou and Wash, but losing by 2 TD's to the Giants. I'll give them a 4 for HFA. Add that 4 to 0.3 and we have Dallas as a 4.3 favorite.
The line is now INDY -1 so we have what looks like a 5.3 advantage for Dallas. If this line goes up to INDY -3 I will definitely play Dallas. As is, it looks like Dallas may still be a play for me. As I said, the plays spit out by the system are sometimes discretionary for me. Other dogs with positve numbers Washington should be favored by 0.6 and SD should be favored by 1.3 according to COF. If either goes to +3, I will play them.

4 - OTHER CAPPERS
I generally HATE following other cappers for a couple of reasons.
1) - You get pissed at yourself AND them when you lose
2) - What do you do when they don't show up to post one week?
However, when I see someone who consistantly spouts out winners on a yearly basis I may make an exception. This is especially true when their methods of handicapping follow my own and many times they just reinforce my own opinions on games. There have been 3 such exceptions, 3 people that I will look at (all free of course) before I make my final selections.
A) Dan from Sportinsights.com writes a column called Sports Market Watch which is available to all basic members every Friday. He picks 3 games that generally go against public opinion. He was one of the few people going against the public last year that ended the season in profit. This year, and I hope I'm not jinxing him here, he has been ON FIRE....17-10 for the season and 2-1 in each of the past 7 weeks, except for the 1 week when he went 3-0.
B) There are 2 cappers in the Foxden Forum that I will always look at Sunday morning before making my final picks.
RDTrains who has consistantly been $$$ ever since I started looking at that forum a few years ago.
Oskiem who has not been posting as long, but just seems to win every single week and always provides a good analysis with stats which, again, usually mirror what I was already thinking anyway.
The Foxden has many great cappers and information that I will look at, but these are the only 2 that I will go out of my way to find each week. Both are also very good College Football cappers as well as most other sports too.

So there it is, my NFL system if anybody cares. Now if 2 or more of these things agree on a game (like Miami or Oakland last week - both winners) then it will probably be a big game for me. Now hopefully someone will find this useful and I haven't really jinxed myself too badly.
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Postby MTPaid » Fri Nov 17, 2006 4:18 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
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Postby MTPaid » Fri Nov 17, 2006 10:18 pm

The deck pretty much told me to go to hell tonight. Used a $26 token on a 2 table SNG for a $75 token. Finished 13th out of 18. I won the 1st hand and lost the next 33. Lost my final hand to an idiot.
[Ad][Qs] in the BB (30/60) w/ 1,150 after posting. UTG+1 (1,820 behind) limps everyone else folds. I raise to 300 and he calls. [5c][6c][4c] w/ 630 in pot. I push my last 910 and he calls. He turns over [Qc][Jh]. Ha, ha, idiot. He could have put his money in almost dead if I had the [Ac] or [Kc]. [Qd] on the turn. [Ac] on the river. Can't help stupid.

192 hands of Limit as well. For the 3rd straight session I kept getting monster starting hands that kept losing.
Table 1: I won only 1 hand at this table and that was because some idiot limped in with QQ from MP and didn't even bet until the turn when I had a straight and a flush draw.
Only other hands I played on this table...
-KQ flops top pair and loses 3BB to A4 w/ a flush draw when the A hits the river.
-AA loses 5.5BB. A quiet table suddenly wakes up when I catch Aces.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?618509
UTG+1 limps, I raise, cold caller behind, and BB calls.
[9s][3c][5c] Flop 8.5 SB
2 checks, I bet, cold caller raises (flush draw probably), BB folds, UTG+1 calls 2, I 3 bet and both call.
[Ts] Turn 8.75 BB
check, I bet, cold caller calls, UTG+1 now c/r's (what the hell could he have open limped with that hits that turn?), I 3 bet again, cold caller folds, UTG+1 calls.
[8s] River 15.75 BB
check, check. UTG+1 has [Th][9h]
-Raised AKo UTG, rock 3 bets. I miss the flop, peel one off, miss the turn, fold. -2BB
-Another rock open-raises 2 off the button, I 3 bet AKo OTB. Flop Qxx w/ 2 diamonds. He bets into me on the flop, I raise and get a free showdown. He wins w/ AQ. -2.5BBB
-I open-raised KJs OTB, get called by BB. He calls again on a rag flop and c/r an A on the turn. I suck again and fold.
-Just wanted to make sure and I was looking for another hand that I won, but that's it. That table sucked!

Table 2 - Sucked also.
JJ 2x. 1st flop had AK and I had to fold. 2nd flop was rags, but idiot hung on to catch a Q on the turn.
AK got caught by someone slowplaying AA.....UNTIL THE TURN! Of course I had to hit my K on the flop. Yup, he limped with AA UTG, just called my PFR. Check/called the flop, then bet out on the turn. Bastard actually waited till I had TPTK and 14 outs after the turn to bet his Aces. My Aces get cracked, this guy plays them like an idiot and squeezes a bunch of bets out of me.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?618518
To be fair, I actually did win a hand with Kings.

Table 3 - Broke even.
Lost a big pot w/ TT on the turn to J8s when the flush hit, but won enough to break even here.

The big hands weren't very nice to me.
AA-TT, AQ/AK 14x in 192 hands. 7 for 14 (-10.7) BB
Last 3 sessions.
AA-TT, AQ/AK 55x in 962 hands. 28 for 55 +4.35 BB
The big hands have been plentiful, but painful lately. KK and QQ are the only 2 that are really showing any profit. Take those two out and AA, JJ, TT, AQ, AK show -10.9 BB.

I better get into that FTOPS ME and do some damage Sunday.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby MTPaid » Sat Nov 18, 2006 7:51 pm

FTOPS ME $100+9
Just got knocked out of the FTOPS ME $100+9 Satellite on a 2 outter. Some things never change I guess. I knew he was on a draw, but I figured it was the flush draw and not a set draw. So yeah, I'm a little pissed. I made one bad play the entire game and get knocked out by an idiot. Frustrating.

I figured that the opposition would be tougher than most tournaments I've played in here. I was wrong. They were pretty stupid. The most shocking thing was the infatuation with the open min preflop raise. They LOVED it. I would say that at least 50% of the preflop raises were min-raises. (Even worse that I thought. I just went through PT and 46 of 95 hands were started w/ a min-preflop raise.) I was easily the most aggressive player at the table. I was dealt AK 7x in 95 hands so I had a right to be. The biggest difference was the ability of most players to raise and then fold to my re-raise, many times from a steal position w/ hands like AK, but they didn't know that. They repeatedly folded to my raises and re-raises.

Here's a tournament summary including every hand I played. I'll bold the ones I thought may be questionable.
Starting stacks are 3,000 Blinds 15/30 12 minute levels.
1 - Very 1st hand - [5c][5d] CO - PFR to 105 UTG, one caller, and I try to flop a set, miss, fold on the flop.

2 - [Ad][9d] (2,895) in MP2. UTG open min-raise to 60. I call, BB calls.
[9s][6s][7d] Pot 195
BB check, UTG 150, I figure I may have the best hand + a few outs so I raise to 400, both call.
[7c] Pot 1,395
Checked around.
[6c] River 1,395
Board double paired on turn and river, now I can't really beat much but a busted draw. BB checks, UTG bets 450, I fold, BB calls. BB shows [Tc][9c]. UTG shows that he min-raised UTG w/ [Jd][Js].


3 - [5c][5d] AGAIN still at level 1. OTB this time.
UTG limps, MP2 limps, I limp. Both blinds play.
[Jd][3c][6h] Pot 150
Checked to me and I figure this is a decent board to throw out a feeler bet. I bet 100, only SB calls. He could have a weak Jack.
[Jc] Pot 450
Check, check
[3s] Pot 450
Again the board double pairs by the river and now I can't beat a damn thing and fold to his 180 bet.

4 - [9h][9c] SB. Blinds now 20/40. I've already bumped off 1/4 of my stack on speculative hands and have 2,200 left after posting. If the 1st raise comes from LP, I'm planning on pushing.
UTG limp, CO raises to 360, we have about the same stack and I'm ready to push when Button pushes for 1625 and I have to fold.
Button had AQ, CO QQ. A on the river.

5 - Blinds at 25/50 now, I still have 2,200 w/ [Ah][Kd] UTG+1.
I open for 175, CO calls (has me covered).
[3h][Qh][5d] Pot 425
I pick it up with a 400 flop bet.

6 - Limped [Jd][Th] OTB after 2 limpers a few hands later, saw free turn, missed, and folded.

7 - [Ah][Kd] again in MP1. Same blinds.
UTG+2 raises to 175 (has me covered). I raise to 400 and everyone folds.

8 - [Ah][Kd] AGAIN the VERY NEXT HAND. I'm up to 2,575.
UTG+2 I vary my raise to 200 now. MP1 calls.
[Ks][2h][5h] Pot 475
I think about checking, but somebody has to think I'm full of crap now so I bet out 300 and MP1 folds. DAMN

9 - Same blinds. [6c][5h] in BB. Another UTG min-preflop raise. 3 callers so I call too. Catch a 6 on the flop, see a turn that comletes a flush and fold to a bet and call.
UTG min-raiser had 33, flopped a set, slow played it on a 5 way flop until someone else ended up with the nut flush to knock him out. WAY TO GO IDIOT!

10 - Same blinds. [8c][8d] OTB (2,725).
CO opens for 175 (3,320 behind). I elect to just call, I admit to not being sure how I want to proceed with 8's on the flop. Remember I had been fairly aggressive and had already pushed this player off a preflop raise w/ a re-raise. I didn't want to play for a possible coinflip here for my stack.
[8c][Ad][3h] Pot 425
CO bets 200, I call.
[Jh] Pot 825
CO bets 400, I can't slowplay anymore, CO may have a number of outs now. Time to see if he has anything. I raise to 1,275 (size of pot) and he folds.


11 - Blinds 30/60 now. [7s][6s] UTG+2. I have 3,575 now.
UTG+1 min-preflop raises. Nobody, besides myself, has shown the ability to re-raise preflop so I take a chance at what could be a juicy pot with the right kind of hand to take it down. 2 more callers behind + BB. 5 to flop
[8s][7c][3h] Pot 630
Checked to button who puts out 300. PFRer calls as do I.
[2s] Pot 1530
Good card. Checked around.
[5c] Pot 1530
Checked around. UTG min-preflop raiser shows [4h][5h]. Button shows [9s][9h].

12 - Same blinds. [Ad][8h] OTB. Folded to me. 240 steals the blinds.

13 - [Kd][Jh] 2 off the button. Folded to me. 240 again takes the blinds.

14 - Very next hand [Qd][Qh] MP2. 3155 stack.
UTG+1 raises to 180. I re-raise to 540 and he pushes. Shows [Ad][Jd] and I hold up. I'm up over 4K now.

15 - 1 orbit later, blinds still 30/60, I pick up [Ac][Kd] again. I open for 200 in CO. It looks like another blind steal from me and it takes the blinds again.

16 - 1 more orbit later, binds 40/80. Folded to me w/ [Kc][Jd] OTB. 240 and another blind steal.

17 - 1st hand of the 2nd hour. 50/100 blinds. I have 4065 and [Ac][6d] in SB and I believe I made my first and possibly only mistake on this hand on the river.
UTG limps, MP2 limps, I complete, 4 way flop.
[2c][9c][6c] Pot 400
I bet 200, MP2 calls.
[4s] Pot 800
I bet 500, MP2 calls (MP2 is the bit stack at the table - still has 6745 after turn call)
[9d] Pot 1800
Straight bluff, I bet 1000 and MP2 min-raises to 2000. I fold.


18 - 1 orbit later, [Ah][Kd] OTB. Blinds still 50/100
UTG+1 raises to 300 (6420 behind). I, who have just bluffed off almost half my stack before, push for 2,165. UTG+1 folds. Should I have bet less? Do I want a call here or do I still have time to slowly build my stack without going for a quick double up?


19 - 2 hands later. [Ah][Ks]. I open raise to 350 from MP2 and take the blinds AGAIN.

20 - Few hands later, same blinds. [Ah][Kh] UTG w/ 2725. I think about limp-re-raising, but figure that's getting too cute and asking for trouble. I raise to 300 and get a call from a very weak tight bigger stack in UTG+2.
[2h][2c][Td] Pot 750
I bet 500 and he folds.

21 - Blinds 60/120. [Qd][Ts] in SB w/ 2885 after posting.
UTG +1 (almost 9K) limps, MP1 (2K) limps, I call, BB checks.
[2c][Td][9c] Pot 480
I bet 250, UTG+1 calls.
[4s] Pot 980
I bet 720 and he bets exactly enough to put me all in for 1855 more. I guess he was slowplaying something, but I'm committed here just in case it's a club draw gone nuts so I feel like I have to call.
He shows [4h][4c]. So he called a flop bet. So he called a 2-1 bet, getting 13-1 implied odds IF he stacked me on the next card, on his 22-1 shot.


Brilliant play to stack me. I had him on a draw on the flop, I thought I was ahead, I was right, I made him make a mistake, and I'm gone. Yeah, I'm more than a little pissed.
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

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"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby MTPaid » Sun Nov 19, 2006 11:26 am

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby MTPaid » Sun Nov 19, 2006 6:25 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby MTPaid » Sun Nov 19, 2006 10:55 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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Postby MTPaid » Mon Nov 20, 2006 6:54 pm

I knew I wouldn't be able to sleep coming off that last session so I went in to play a very short session before I went to bed. It's wierd, but if I have a winning day (doesn't matter how much) I sleep better than if it was a bad session. Just 65 hands in a half hour and I won +$17.85. . How? Well I'm not really sure. I only remember one decent sized pot. My 1st hand, I posted from CO w/ QT. Just me and the blinds. Flop came 8QT. SB bets pot, I call. 6 - SB bets pot again. Great, tell me my top 2 just ran into a straight from the BB AGAIN. 5 - he bets pot for the 3rd straight time and I call expecting to see J9. He had Q8 and I pick up $9.25 on the 1st hand. A look at PT tells me that 11x in the 65 hands I invested more than the big blind and I won all 11. How about that? Now I can sleep.

TODAY......
I just finished off the worst limit session (in terms of BB/100) I think I've ever had. I'm still staring at it in PT to make sure it happened. Yet again, I got AK/AQ/KK many times and I looked like I was raising like a maniac. So they came after me and they crushed me. I had 2 decent wins and THANK GOD or I would have lost about 2 starting stacks instead of 1 and 1/3. In 239 hands I lost $38.30 or 16.03 bb/100 and I didn't play badly at all.

Table 1 - Sat down w/ $30 - left with $5.30. Loss of $24.70 in 88 hands. I won a total of 2 hands at this table. That's 1 out of every 44.
-2nd hand there, in the SB I have KK. Button open-raises, I 3-bet, he caps. Ace on the flop, which he didn't really need because he already had 2 of them.
-3rd hand, yup, very next hand OTB w/ [Kh][Qh]. One poster, no limpers, I raise OTB. Only poster calls. I flop FD+2OC. Poster donks into me, I raise. He calls a turn bet too.
Board [7h][6h][Jd][8c][3c]. I lose to [9s][7c]. That's the kind of hand I always call raises with and then bet out middle pair and stay with it.
-Next hand. Open-raise CO w/ AKo. SB calls. Flop 928. He calls a flop bet. Turn 7. He calls again. River Q - He shows A7. That's 3 big losses in the 1st 4 hands.
-I finally win a hand with AK when I catch an A on the turn.
-I win another one with AK 3 hands later. I raise UTG, CO cold calls. 3 rag flop, I bet he calls. Checked down and he shows AQ.
-I raise A5s OTB after 2 limpers. Flop 288 (none my suit), 2nd limper bets into that and I fold, 1st limper c/r anyway. No respect for the raise. I can't have anything, can I?
-AQo OTB. MP2 limps, I raise. I lose to QTo w/ a T on the flop.
-KK again UTG. I raise, 1 cold call and SB calls. 875 and SB bets into me, I raise, cold caller calls 2. Turn 2, putting 3 spades on the board. I bet, both call. River 6, SB bets out again, he has T9o for the straight. KK 0 for 2. Called an UTG PFR w/ T9o in the SB. Yippee!
AND THAT was Table 1.

Table 2 - Sat down w/ $30 and left $7.35. Loss of $22.65 in 79 hands. I won only 1 hand at that table for more than $1 and that was $1.40.
-Open-raise AJo from MP - take the blinds.
-Open-raise K6s OTB - BB 3 bets. I miss rag flop and fold.
-Next hand I open-raise A5o from CO. Button and BB call. I miss, bet, get raised and fold.
-3 hands later I open-raise 99 from MP. CO 3 bets. SB calls. 76s+K on flop. I fold.
-2 hands later I raise AKo UTG and take the blinds.
-2 hands later 75s in SB. I complete, flop FD+GSSD. Call down and miss.
-I open raise KJo from MP and take blinds.
-Next hand, I open raise AKo from UTG+2, BB calls. I flop K and he folds. (My biggest win at this table)
-3rd hadn in a row, AQ raise from UTG+1, UTG+2 3 bets. Flop 9xx. Both check. Q on turn, I bet he calls. River blank. I bet he raises. He flopped set of 9's. EFF ME!
-Last hand [Qh][Jd] OTB. 1 limper and I llimp. [4c][Js][3c]. BB bets, limper calls, I raise, both call. [As] checked to me, I bet only limper calls. [Kc] River. check, check. Limper open-limped AQ and caught his reverse dominated 3 outter on the turn.
AND THAT was Table 2.

So far, 167 hands on 2 tables. No sets, no trips, no straights, no flushes, no boats.

Table 3 - Better. Sat down with $30 left with $39.05. Won $9.05. Two hands.
-1st orbit. QTs MP after 1 limper. 5 see the flop unraised. Flop 9J4 different suits. Turn A. River K. Nuts, I win 5BB
-1 orbit later. AA MP2. This is the highlight of my day. UTG+1 PFR, I 3 bet and he calls. Flop [8h][Qh][As]. Check, check. [8s] check, I raise, he c/r, it gets capped. River [Qd]. Tell me has rivered quads. He checks, I bet, he calls. At any rate, that river killed my action because he had raised [Jd][8d] in EP and I got really lucky that he hit trips on the turn. +6.75 BB.
-KK in BB beat TT in SB on board of 5 undercards.
-PFR ATo, lose to 98s in BB who called flop and turn with middle pair no draw.
-Out of all the hands today, this one pissed me off the most. 77 OTB. I open raise, SB calls. K58. SB check/calls. 8 on turn. SB check/calls. River K. EFF ME AGAIN. SB shows A2s. I typed in "That's awesome, nh" afterwards and SB said "ty" apparently not catching the sarcasm.
-CO open-raises, I 3 bet AQo OTB, BB calls 2 bets. Flop 8Kx. Checked to me, I bet. Only SB calls. Turn and River blanks. Checked down. BB shows A8o.

Let's review those last 2 hands. Do you know how many hands I dominated that I lost to today? I think you do if you have read this post. More than I beat. Do you know how many much money I would lose if I called raises with hands like Ax and then called down? How many times would someone that is sane call 2 bets with A8o in the BB, call the 3 better WITH A KING ON THE FLOP when you have only paired your 8? How does he make this work? I lose every single EFFIN time there. I fold PF and even if I hit the call button by mistake, I fold middle pair 100% of the time or lose a lot of money. I don't get it.

So 239 hands -
0 flopped set
0 flopped trips - 1 trip Aces on the turn and I split that pot
1 boat - the Aces
1 straight - 1st decent win of the day
0 flushes
Only 12 pocket pairs or 1 out of every 20
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
"Muppets In Space"

The Blog: http://lazyguy.squarespace.com

"Full Tilt is rigged" - ED
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