Hi Kowboy,

I read the post - havent read SS2 yet -

A bit of coincidence just happened...got dealt KK as BB. UTG +1 raised 3 times BB, LP1 and Button call, SB folds, I raise all in. All players fold.

+345 with no risk in the first round of tourney..worked there.

My question is: To what extent will this strategy affect your variance due to players catching lucky breaks?. Do you finish ITM less often but get a bigger chunk when you do place. Do you play this way regardless of the size of your stack or are you more likely to go all in with AK late because you have everyone covered?

I have played in a few MTT's and never seem to get a big enough stack to play comfortably above the blind levels....probably just trying to survive too much instead of win. Last night I played in a 40 person tourney and came 8th

Thanks,

ThaNinja

I like this strategy Kowboy...w/ the AA and KK anyway, possibly the AK....i've been struggling with the MTT's too...i get far, close to the bubble, but always have to implement my low stack/ all in strategy and usually get kicked out just out of the money...
So we need more chips early on...we've discussed this before, our style of play vs. those LAGs who catch an early lead. (MTT's only) I've played about 10 MTT's lately and only cashed in one, and it was only about for $150 on a $30 entry...
Maybe if we can get an early big chip pile, THEN we go back into our usual style, course I know you've already figured that, just thinking out loud here.
Usually one doesn't win much w/ AA anyway, might as well go all in...often somebody thinks you have JJ or 1010 and will call you w/ AQ, AK, QQ, JJ, 1010, then we'll usually be doubled...
I'd like to know how Dan Harrington thinks on this...he's made that final table in the big one often lately, getting thru all the huge number of minefields.
So i've gone back mostly to my bread and butter, the SNG's...every now and then playing a MTT and ring games.

Kowboy... is this a set-in-stone policy, or can it change w/ the table texture...? Ex... you get AA early on an ultra-tight table... or UTG on a LAGgy table, where you might scare them away w/ the all-in, but are almost guaranteed one will raise preflop and you can reraise allin, probably stealing a LOT more chips and possibly getting a caller...
MVP

I tried it today on a UB $5 MTT.

I had the three hands a total of 4 times. I doubled up twice and had no callers the other 2. At the 10/20 level I moved in with KK and had 33 call for a double up. At 100/200 I pushed with AK on the button with $3300 and had AQ call me and I hit a K on the flop. With AA I only took the blinds, but with AK another time there were 4 limpers at the 75/150 level and they all folded, so it was a decent pot.

I like this play and will continue to use it. Thanks Kowboy.

Erik

PS- I finished 52d out of 422 and it paid 50

I don't have time right now to answer all the responses. I will answer the easy ones and give a more detailed answer later on today.

MVP - Nothing I post is ever set in stone. If you have a manic raising every hand acting behind you you have to give him rope to hang himself. If yuo have a tight table and the blind are meaningless you have to slow down but not so slow that you let 4 or 5 players see the flop. If you do your asking to lose alot of chips.

Aisthesis - That was 90% of the 40% when I did get called. However your right that figure is to high and I didn't have enough data and really I still don't.

At this time I have gone all in pre flop with AA and have not lost a showdown. I only have 9 hands that I have done this with since I started pushing AA.

KK however is another story. I have had KK 12 times and it has been cracked 3 time times. edit note -I miss typed 9 times in the original post

Once by AA the rest of the time by Ax. This weekend the play was so fishy that people were calling all in's with any A.

AK I only pushed it 3 times and I am 2 for 3. The lose was to pocket 6's.

So what is that 24 times I have pushed won 20. So at this time it is 80% win rate.

I will start keeping exact records. such as position, called not called, what others had, when lose ect....

I have not noticed a big change as far as ITM finishes. But I have noticed an improvement in my stack size as the Trn enters the later stages.

SNG's have gotten so tight I am not sure this is going to work for them. I'll give more thoughts on SNG's later.

Semperfi - It's going to take a little longer to answer you so I will have to get back to you later. Hope your tearing up the tables in Vegas.

I would only raise AA or KK all-in as initial raiser in a MTT if I was short-stacked. RE-raising all-in is a different story and depends on stack depth of the raiser, blind levels, etc. In general, I think pushing AA or KK right off the bat if you have a decent stack is a big misplay and not getting enough value for these hands -- esp. from EP. Give somebody a chance to re-raise you -- you'd hate to fold off an AK, JJ, or TT that would have reraised you and possibly then been pot-committed in their minds. I'm really not too afraid to play a flop with AA or KK. If it looks scary, I know I can get away and survive. If it looks tame and I get busted by a set, well shit happens. What I really want is for my opponent to either have a lower overpair or TPTK -- in most cases, I'm busting him (or her).

Note: I don't know what stakes tourneys you are playing. For $5+1 or freerolls, I can see this all-in play working. But anything higher than that, I can't see too many calls by 33 or any ace. Even the $20+2 & $30+3 at Party have mostly reasonable players after the first 100 knuckleheads are gone (not necessarily "good" but by reasonable I mean they'll foolishly call a reraise with AQ but not A3) .

I mainly play $10 to $30 trns mainly at absolute and full tilt. I've given up on Party a long time ago.

I do agree that there are times when you are losing value. But the way players are playing right now with so many calling stations you don't know if your ahead or behind. So you keep raising he keeps calling only to flip over 2 pair 10s and jacks at show down.

After SS 2 came out now everyone plays suited conectors for a raise. I don't want to play drawing hands against AA or KK. I want to play QQ, JJ, AQ ect.. Those are the hands that are going to call an all in preflop. 78s won't call all in but he will call 4X the BB then chase his flush/straight draw after the flop if he has flopped 2 suited cards or 4 to his straight.

I just got tired of the suck outs.

I am wide open to your strategy for playing these hands. pre flop, post flop, turn and river. Maybe I need to give party another chance. I have noticed some of the players having good results at stars also. I have been dealing with one suck out after another lately.

Kowboy, I don't know how our math guru calculated that AK is 67% over QQ, but I don't think that is true. AK vs QQ wouldn't be a classical tournament matchup if AK were that much of a favorite, I think. Anyway, the odds calculator says that QQ is a 53-57% favourite, depending on suits.

Also, lower pocket pairs are roughly a coinflip against AK. If you push first in in LP with AK, and one of the blinds has 99 or similar, he might very well think you are on a steal and call you. This seems to me like a big risk to take unless you are shortstacked.

Pieter