FullTiltPoker Game #1331517047: Table Laurelglen - $1/$2 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo - 20:05:41 ET - 2006/11/30
Seat 1: Gamblin4Jesus ($204.30)
Seat 2: princeofpop ($202.50)
Seat 3: VooDoo Chile NY ($75.50)
Seat 4: tristanbk ($462.65)
Seat 5: jozo2008 ($183.50)
Seat 6: BillTheButcher8 ($444.40)
Seat 7: xcentricity ($324.90)
Seat 8: PkrNooblet ($0), is sitting out
Seat 9: PiranhaFlower ($192)
tristanbk posts the small blind of $1
jozo2008 posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #3

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Gamblin4Jesus
BillTheButcher8 folds
xcentricity folds
PiranhaFlower folds
Gamblin4Jesus raises to $7
princeofpop folds
VooDoo Chile NY folds
tristanbk calls $6
PkrNooblet adds $80
jozo2008 folds
PkrNooblet has returned

*** FLOP ***
tristanbk bets $16
Gamblin4Jesus ???

Over 48 hands tristanbk is loose and slightly agressive (VP$IP 61, WtSD 28, W$SD 63, Total Agg .44).

What is your line? If you choose to continue what do you do if the turn blanks and he pots into you?

Just in case anyone was wondering
- I have 39% PE against XX
- I have 35% PE against XX
- I have 40% PR against XX

- How often do you think I get an A2 to fold?
rarely against a player this loose

- How often do you think he has something other then A2?
30% at least against a player this loose, especially if you're a tight preflop raiser.

- What do you think about a call, and go nuts with a happy turn?
What happy turn? A Q or 9? That's less than 1 time in 7. Going by your analysis, a 4 isn't going to help your situation much at all. If you mean making a move on the turn, then sure. I prefer raising now and pushing the turn when checked to, if he calls.

Ok, let's see how you fare if you get what you wish for. I'll pick the best possible cards when I can (i.e. not a heart), and assume he has a naked A2 like you do:
On the flop:
board: 8h3d5h
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
ac9c2dqh 39.45% 0 140,677 111,998 0 553,495
a2** 60.55% 30,626 347,325 111,998 46,505 553,495

Q on the turn:
board: 8h3d5hQc
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
ac9c2dqh 57.85% 0 371,716 75,365 0 569,515
a2** 42.15% 12,678 152,919 75,365 30,485 569,515

9 on the turn:
board: 8h3d5h9s
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
ac9c2dqh 55.07% 0 339,416 72,951 0 569,798
a2** 44.93% 13,880 187,633 72,951 30,202 569,798

J on the turn:
board: 8h3d5hJs
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
ac9c2dqh 40.16% 0 157,136 80,441 0 569,136
a2** 59.84% 21,989 362,423 80,441 30,864 569,136

Can't do the high only cards but it can't be much different than the J would be I'd imagine.

Unless I'm missing something, your absolute best case scenario might make you a 58/42 favorite after the turn.

If he was an uber-tight nit that you could push off a hand and would be smart enough to fold a naked A2 then make a play. Since he doesn't appear to be such a player, then why bother?

PABS