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KK, river overbet push, 400NL, 5max - Live Poker Forums

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KK, river overbet push, 400NL, 5max

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KK, river overbet push, 400NL, 5max

Postby Zmej » Fri Dec 01, 2006 4:08 am

OP was at the table for about 25 hands, but he already made one overbet push. I don't know what he had then as his OP folded. I have a bit of a read on him that he bluffs more than most. He is not overly loose though, ha was about 35 VPIP over 25 hands.
Effective stacks 400.

Preflop: I raise on CO with [Kh] [Kd] to 14, OP calls on BB
Flop (27): [3c] [4c] [6d]
BB checks, I bet 22, BB calls.
Turn (71): [Jh]
BB checks, I check
(I am fully aware that a standard line is to bet here, but I expected that OP could CR here on a bluff or with a good hand, soI decided that pot control is more important than charging the draws.)
River (71): [Ts]
BB bets 365 and is AI, I?
Did I induce the bluff? Or he has a set here?

All coments are welcome.

edited for grammar
"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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Postby Zwheito » Fri Dec 01, 2006 4:27 am

I think the shove is way to big to call with KK. I think he solwplayed a set from the flop, was going to CR the turn, and overbets the river trying to make it look like a desperate bluff.

Very few players risk 365 $ to win 71.

I need a read that says he is a giant, overaggessive assclown to call that bet.
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Postby Electrolux » Fri Dec 01, 2006 5:25 am

- Mexicans are filthy. I once blew a Mexican. I had diarrhea for a week. Sarah Silverman

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Postby DonkiFornication » Fri Dec 01, 2006 5:32 am

I'm all for pot control with big pairs, but not against a guy I know is capable of making this push when I don't know what it means. You checking that turn screams AK or AQ and could lead him at 77-TT and that makes a lot more sense for his riverpush than the "desperate push for value." This really looks like he doesn't wanna get bluffed off his hand to me.

He's a sLAA by your read, so I'd throw AA-TT out the window because I think he shows some flop aggression with these hands. You don't know where 11 of the clubs are, but I think he shows some flop aggression with a club draw as good as King high.

That said, what beats you in his range? [Jc] [Tc], 33, 44, 66, and 57.

What do you beat in his range? 77-99, 55, 22, and AJ/KJ/QJ/AT could float this flop and check the turn. Busted clubs are another option, of course, but on a smaller range, IMO.

I'm guesstimating that you're 2.5:1 against my range on him from your prior read making this a +EV call by ~$200'ish. Still a tough call, cause it's so much.

But what do I know, I'd bet $55 on the turn. Pot control isn't just checking the turn, it's having the control and against a guy that you KNOW is heavily capable of taking that control away from you OOP, I wouldn't check this turn without at least a set to this board or complete air. I'd check 55 and a big flush draw, too. But I'm betting AA-QQ, TT-77, 67, 56 and any Jack here.
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Postby Xaston » Fri Dec 01, 2006 6:58 am

Boy, you got me confused with a man who repeats himself.
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Postby Zmej » Fri Dec 01, 2006 7:04 am

"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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Postby DonkiFornication » Fri Dec 01, 2006 12:57 pm

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Postby Zmej » Fri Dec 01, 2006 2:41 pm

"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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Postby DonkiFornication » Fri Dec 01, 2006 2:50 pm

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Postby Zmej » Fri Dec 01, 2006 3:12 pm

Ok.
My thought process was as follows.
As I said I expected him to bluff here, read based on previous hands. (Overbets pushes AI are rare and he already did that once.) After I checked turn I expected a big bet on the river by him, but of course not AI. Anyway my read well inicated that this is a bluff very often, so I called. If one looks at my posts, mostly I recommend folding to overbets, but here the hand went according to my reads/expectations and it is much different from guessing in a vacuum what OP has.

OP had [Ks] [2s].

P.S. I am not sure if such a hand should be posted, as it is very read dependent.
"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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Postby Xaston » Fri Dec 01, 2006 3:17 pm

Boy, you got me confused with a man who repeats himself.
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Postby DonkiFornication » Fri Dec 01, 2006 4:35 pm

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