Villain is 15/9/1.5 over 30 hands.... I realize Villain is probably a little short for me to call preflop but once it's done...



Is this as standard as it seems to me after the turn?

All comments appreciated...

Personally, I probably wouldn't call this preflop raise unless he player had a full stack,.

However I would probably bet the turn, once he check raises your not in great shape obviously, I'm guessing you are around 2.5 to 3-1 to hit a winning card on the river, if we assume a J, T or flush card can win it for you......

I would probably call, but then I play badly against short stacks.

Mathematically, a lot depends on what range you put him on. Against AA I'm only a 3:2 dog as I've got 17 outs. If he has a set, say QQ (pre flop raiser) I'm a 3:1 dog. AK has me flat dominated 86/14 dog here. KK has me roughly a 70/30 dog. ATs and I'm roughly 65/35 favorite. I'm an 8:2 dog vs. KT but didn't think he was holding this. Since he didn't seem the type to raise in EP with QJ or J9 I didn't do 2p hands.


He was laying 2.98:1 to call. I made another mistake by putting him AI which lowered my pot odds to 2.65:1. As happens sometimes in poker I made the wrong play at the right time...he had AA and was the river. The call seems close but I say it's a mistake because I didn't even consider AK until after I'd hit the AI button. Still, if we take the amount of boards I may slip by...there are just too many boards where I'm even or slightly minus EV for me to believe it wasn't a mistake long term.

Thanks for the input. Now I'll see if I can translate what I 'learned' into practice.