by GodlikeRoy » Fri Dec 08, 2006 12:24 am
I thought I explained my reasons in my previous post, but here's a more detailed response.
I really think this is a check/fold, or shove on the river. When you check, what worse hand bets? There really aren't any hands I can think of. Therefore when he bets, you has you beat almost always. Sure there's a small % chance that he called preflop and the flop with total air, but what's more likely is he has some piece of the board or a PP and will be more than happy to check it down.
So by checking you get no value out of hands you beat, but you give no value to hands that beat you. Perhaps check/folding is the best line, but I really doubt check/calling is.
When you shove the river, you're giving him the opportunity to make a big mistake. He can and will call you with a pretty wide range after you checked the turn. AJ will call a lot, any king is almost always called (AK, KT, KJ) and maybe TT or a lower PP if your opponents are giving you no respect at all, and by the way Zmej described that he's playing, it sounds like his opponents are just begging for a reason to call him down light and snap off a bluff. Give them one. Of course he's never folding a hand that beats you, so this bet is purely for value. Is it there? I think so. I mean, if you're going to CHECK-CALL, shoving is a million times better.
The more and more I think about it, the more I think check-call is really bad here. Either check-fold or shove. Does this make sense?
Edit: K I just went up and read Zmej's post about "I think he'll fold AK to a shove here" which I think is really wrong but if that's the case, check-folding is the only play. I personally think a solid regular will have taken note to your over-aggro style of play and be willing to call you down with marginal holdings.
Poker is silly.
It is not enough to be good at chess, you must also play well.
Somewhere in the world someone is training when you are not. When you race him, he will win.