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Postby KJo » Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:29 pm

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Postby Dumb Snowman » Thu Dec 07, 2006 4:00 pm

Partake in my bollocks, bloody chav!
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Postby DonkiFornication » Thu Dec 07, 2006 10:06 pm

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Postby Dumb Snowman » Thu Dec 07, 2006 10:20 pm

Partake in my bollocks, bloody chav!
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Postby Dumb Snowman » Thu Dec 07, 2006 10:25 pm

Partake in my bollocks, bloody chav!
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Postby DonkiFornication » Thu Dec 07, 2006 10:37 pm

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Postby Dumb Snowman » Thu Dec 07, 2006 10:57 pm

I agree, it is very possible. But here's the thing... the only thing we have to guess on his hand by is his image. His image says he is VERY tight and lets you walk in the sb. Him being a weak player post flop won't matter because of the depth of stacks here. If you hit the board at all you're going to have to put as many chips as he has into the pot, and you will have no idea where you're at until the cards are flipped over.

And he's first to act so he will take down every pot that you don't hit with his cb. Since you'll only hit like what, 30% of the time he's going to automatically win 70% (unless he's really an idiot and just checks it down or something). And like I said, even when you do hit, you're very likely to not have the best hand here.

To me it just seems like very very bad reverse implied odds.
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Postby DonkiFornication » Fri Dec 08, 2006 12:31 am

OK, so my lazy ass finally went to Poker Stove on this. I think he's calling a push AA-88, AK/AQ/AJ, KQ and I'm a 57/43 dog that range. There's 10.5k dead and he has 31k left. i think he can fold KJ-K9/AT-A9/QJ/QT/JT/77 on a weak steal attempt.

So he's calling 8% of all hands and the folding range is 10.1% of all hands.

(10.1*5.5)= 55.5
(8*5.5)= 44

When he folds:
55.5 (10500)= +582750

When he calls:
44 [0.57(-37000)]= -792880
44 [0.43(42500)]= +804100
+804100-792880= +11220

Over 99 hands, we chip up 593970.

Pushing's +cEV be close to 6k. As you weigh down the likelyhood of him abusing his image with a weak steal attempt, the cEV goes down, but just basing it on him being tight is negated by the fact that his M has dwindled down close to 5. Take out all the possibility that he's stealing and a push is still +cEV.

My main question was whether calling preflop was better than pushing and if so, what would be my approaches to certain flops along with his actions into me.
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Postby Dumb Snowman » Fri Dec 08, 2006 1:05 am

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Postby DonkiFornication » Fri Dec 08, 2006 1:23 am

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Postby hard2tel » Fri Dec 08, 2006 1:55 am

Last edited by hard2tel on Fri Dec 08, 2006 1:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby hard2tel » Fri Dec 08, 2006 1:56 am

"But meh, what I lack for in talent and intelligence I make up for in lack of ambition." -- Oatmealforxmas

- make more than xaston and roy
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Postby DonkiFornication » Fri Dec 08, 2006 2:00 am

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Postby hard2tel » Fri Dec 08, 2006 2:07 am

"But meh, what I lack for in talent and intelligence I make up for in lack of ambition." -- Oatmealforxmas

- make more than xaston and roy
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Postby DaFish » Fri Dec 08, 2006 7:22 am

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