by DonkiFornication » Thu Dec 14, 2006 6:00 pm
Three scenarios
#1- A TPA opens for 4x UTG and an LPP in MP calls. Fold to you in the SB with KK and you re-pop to 9x. There's value in getting called because you have the best hand such a ridiculous amount of the time that... (I'm not even gonna finish that sentence.)
#2- A TAA opens for 4x in MP and a total donk LPP calls in the SB. You re-raise to 12x with AQs. This is a re-raise to make the raiser fold- yes, but you know SB is calling. Getting called by the TAG would suck, but your hand has generic value and getting called by the SB has value because you have a hand that flops well against his range. Even though, your #1 goal is to win the pot right now, you could have the best hand to one opponent and you can outflop the other were you to get called.
#3- LAGtard (45/35) opens in the CO for 4x and an equal LAGtard calls OTB. Both are winning players in all types of settings. You re-raise to 14x with 84o. This is a squeeze. The primary value here comes from the minute expectation of getting called by anyone and picking up the 7.5x in the pot right now.
The differences between the 3 scenarios are actually independent of the cards.
#1- we make a move to get called where there's expectation of getting called. Were we to do this with AT, it wouldn't be a squeeze, it'd be stupid.
#2- SB loves to see flops and TAG's reasonable, so we're seeing a flop with at least the SB, just taking the PF lead and seeing where we're at vs. TAG. There's a small amount of fold equity.
#3- The LAGtard raises 35% of hands. He has to fold about 5 of 7 hands to a re-raise from behind. Button called knowing this and didn't re-raise. Raising any 2 from the blinds has become profitable because now the CO has to fold about 6 of 7 hands due of the fact that (a) 5 of 7 are too weak and (b) 1 of the last 2 at the least is too weak considering he's sandwiched between you and the Button.
And we've already established that the Button is folding. He plays 45% of hands. A small percentage of that is a trap with AA/KK. He isn't playing QQ/JJ for set value. He would've re-raised the CO with those along with AK/AQ/AJs. And he has to fold TT-22 along with AJo and worse now.
Deciding whether or not to squeeze depends on your opponents' likelihood to fold, not your cards. This is why I said in Ojingo's thread that his squeeze was good because the Aussie was wild and on a large range. I said that a reason not to squeeze there was because ATs does have postflop value against this guy.