Since I have moved up to 1/2 and 2/4 I just feel like I am being pushed around. In my last 350ish hand session I only made it to showdown 15% of the time. Over 2.5Kish hands I have at 1/2 and 2/4 I have been to showdown 19% of the time down from my normal 23%.

Over that sample size this could just be short term variance or it could be my opponents are now good enough to be making plays at me. If it the former I need to buckle down and deal, if it is the latter I need to change my game. Just trying to fiugre out which.

Examples:

Hand 1
Ribbon Falls 10474854-75366 Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit $2/$4
[Dec 18 03:51:26] : Hand Start.
[Dec 18 03:51:26] : Seat 1 : EatTheCat has $355.50
[Dec 18 03:51:26] : Seat 2 : LuckyLeon has $206.49
[Dec 18 03:51:26] : Seat 3 : pinny has $316.38
[Dec 18 03:51:26] : Seat 4 : BOOM ! LOL has $296.75
[Dec 18 03:51:26] : Seat 5 : hunt2004 has $150.51
[Dec 18 03:51:26] : Seat 6 : GGG has $579.13
[Dec 18 03:51:26] : Seat 7 : bj2poker has $257.62
[Dec 18 03:51:26] : Seat 8 : MaPai has $68.50
[Dec 18 03:51:26] : Seat 9 : Wahjudi has $84
[Dec 18 03:51:26] : EatTheCat is the dealer.
[Dec 18 03:51:26] : LuckyLeon posted small blind.
[Dec 18 03:51:27] : pinny posted big blind.
[Dec 18 03:51:27] : Game [75366] started with 9 players.
[Dec 18 03:51:27] : Dealing Hole Cards.

[Dec 18 03:51:27] : Seat 1 : EatTheCat has
[Dec 18 03:51:29] : BOOM ! LOL folded.
[Dec 18 03:51:36] : hunt2004 called $4
[Dec 18 03:52:09] : GGG called $4
[Dec 18 03:52:09] : bj2poker folded.
[Dec 18 03:52:10] : MaPai folded.
[Dec 18 03:52:10] : Wahjudi folded.
[Dec 18 03:52:13] : EatTheCat called $4 and raised $18
[Dec 18 03:52:15] : LuckyLeon folded.
[Dec 18 03:52:18] : pinny folded.
[Dec 18 03:52:22] : hunt2004 called $18
[Dec 18 03:52:24] : GGG folded.
[Dec 18 03:52:24] : Dealing flop.

[Dec 18 03:52:24] : Board cards
[Dec 18 03:52:29] : hunt2004 checked.
[Dec 18 03:52:35] : EatTheCat bet $35
[Dec 18 03:52:41] : hunt2004 called $35 and raised $93.51 and is All-in
[Dec 18 03:52:22] : EatTheCat folded.

Hand 2
Ribbon Falls 10474854-75386 Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit $2/$4
[Dec 18 04:17:22] : Hand Start.
[Dec 18 04:17:22] : Seat 1 : EatTheCat has $323.50
[Dec 18 04:17:22] : Seat 2 : kamijjang has $80
[Dec 18 04:17:22] : Seat 3 : pinny has $213.91
[Dec 18 04:17:22] : Seat 4 : BOOM ! LOL has $327.25
[Dec 18 04:17:22] : Seat 5 : hunt2004 has $435.85
[Dec 18 04:17:22] : Seat 6 : GGG has $701.01
[Dec 18 04:17:22] : Seat 7 : bj2poker has $181.62
[Dec 18 04:17:22] : Seat 8 : MaPai has $34
[Dec 18 04:17:22] : Seat 9 : Wahjudi has $178.50
[Dec 18 04:17:22] : BOOM ! LOL is the dealer.
[Dec 18 04:17:22] : hunt2004 posted small blind.
[Dec 18 04:17:22] : GGG posted big blind.
[Dec 18 04:17:22] : Game [75386] started with 8 players.
[Dec 18 04:17:22] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Dec 18 04:17:22] : Seat 1 : EatTheCat has
[Dec 18 04:17:23] : bj2poker called $4
[Dec 18 04:17:24] : MaPai folded.
[Dec 18 04:17:30] : EatTheCat called $4
[Dec 18 04:17:34] : kamijjang folded.
[Dec 18 04:17:36] : pinny called $4
[Dec 18 04:17:39] : BOOM ! LOL folded.
[Dec 18 04:17:46] : hunt2004 called $2
[Dec 18 04:17:47] : GGG checked.
[Dec 18 04:17:47] : Dealing flop.

[Dec 18 04:17:47] : Board cards
[Dec 18 04:17:50] : hunt2004 checked.
[Dec 18 04:17:54] : GGG checked.
[Dec 18 04:17:56] : bj2poker bet $8
[Dec 18 04:18:05] : EatTheCat called $8
[Dec 18 04:18:11] : pinny called $8
[Dec 18 04:18:23] : hunt2004 folded.
[Dec 18 04:18:23] : GGG folded.
[Dec 18 04:18:24] : Dealing turn.

[Dec 18 04:18:24] : Board cards
[Dec 18 04:18:30] : bj2poker checked.
[Dec 18 04:18:34] : EatTheCat checked.
[Dec 18 04:18:35] : pinny checked.
[Dec 18 04:18:36] : Dealing river.

[Dec 18 04:18:36] : Board cards
[Dec 18 04:18:41] : bj2poker checked.
[Dec 18 04:18:52] : EatTheCat bet $20
[Dec 18 04:18:57] : pinny called $20 and raised $84
[Dec 18 04:19:00] : bj2poker folded.
[Dec 18 04:19:07] : EatTheCat folded.

Hand 3
POKERSTARS GAME #7490804701: OMAHA HI/LO POT LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2006/12/17 - 21:54:35 (ET)
Table 'Anius II' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: slwhitaker ($439.05 in chips)
Seat 2: RichGirlWon ($159.50 in chips)
Seat 3: LAMONETTS ($233 in chips)
Seat 5: ZYMERGY ($294.45 in chips)
Seat 6: thegup2 ($204.90 in chips)
Seat 7: GRANDMALUCY9 ($158.25 in chips)
Seat 8: jlvc ($201.35 in chips)
Seat 9: GooperMC ($197 in chips)
slwhitaker: posts small blind $1
RichGirlWon: posts big blind $2
AAGirlAA: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to GooperMC
LAMONETTS: calls $2
ZYMERGY: folds
thegup2: folds
GRANDMALUCY9: folds
jlvc: folds
GooperMC: raises $7 to $9
slwhitaker: calls $8
RichGirlWon: folds
LAMONETTS: calls $7

*** FLOP ***
slwhitaker: checks
LAMONETTS: checks
GooperMC: bets $20
slwhitaker: raises $67.55 to $87.55
LAMONETTS: calls $87.55
GooperMC: folds

Hand 4
Ribbon Falls 10474854-75316 Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit $2/$4
[Dec 18 02:55:36] : Hand Start.
[Dec 18 02:55:36] : Seat 1 : EatTheCat has $294.50
[Dec 18 02:55:36] : Seat 2 : LuckyLeon has $243.99
[Dec 18 02:55:36] : Seat 3 : sweetdenny has $274.40
[Dec 18 02:55:36] : Seat 4 : badbeater04 has $561.35
[Dec 18 02:55:36] : Seat 6 : GGG has $328.14
[Dec 18 02:55:36] : Seat 8 : cyaa has $215.77
[Dec 18 02:55:36] : Seat 9 : dnycali03 has $96
[Dec 18 02:55:36] : LuckyLeon is the dealer.
[Dec 18 02:55:37] : sweetdenny posted small blind.
[Dec 18 02:55:37] : badbeater04 posted big blind.
[Dec 18 02:55:37] : Game [75316] started with 7 players.
[Dec 18 02:55:37] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Dec 18 02:55:37] : Seat 1 : EatTheCat has

[Dec 18 02:55:41] : GGG called $4
[Dec 18 02:55:44] : cyaa folded.
[Dec 18 02:55:44] : dnycali03 folded.
[Dec 18 02:55:46] : EatTheCat called $4
[Dec 18 02:55:47] : LuckyLeon called $4
[Dec 18 02:55:48] : sweetdenny called $2
[Dec 18 02:55:50] : badbeater04 checked.
[Dec 18 02:55:50] : Dealing flop.

[Dec 18 02:55:50] : Board cards
[Dec 18 02:55:55] : sweetdenny checked.
[Dec 18 02:55:59] : badbeater04 checked.
[Dec 18 02:56:01] : GGG checked.
[Dec 18 02:56:06] : EatTheCat checked.
[Dec 18 02:56:11] : LuckyLeon checked.

[Dec 18 02:56:12] : Dealing turn.
[Dec 18 02:56:12] : Board cards
[Dec 18 02:56:13] : sweetdenny checked.
[Dec 18 02:56:25] : badbeater04 checked.
[Dec 18 02:56:28] : GGG checked.
[Dec 18 02:56:32] : EatTheCat checked.
[Dec 18 02:56:33] : LuckyLeon checked.
[Dec 18 02:56:34] : Dealing river.

[Dec 18 02:56:34] : Board cards
[Dec 18 02:56:38] : sweetdenny checked.
[Dec 18 02:56:41] : badbeater04 checked.
[Dec 18 02:56:42] : GGG checked.
[Dec 18 02:56:53] : EatTheCat bet $15
[Dec 18 02:57:01] : LuckyLeon called $15 and raised $50
[Dec 18 02:57:03] : sweetdenny folded.
[Dec 18 02:57:09] : badbeater04 folded.
[Dec 18 02:57:09] : GGG folded.
[Dec 18 02:57:21] : It's your turn.
[Dec 18 02:57:30] : EatTheCat folded.

Even at these levels I play pretty ABC poker so if my opponents are intelligent in all of these they should be able to figure out what I have. Also, if they figured out that I can fold these hands it shouldn’t be too hard to make these plays. It is time to change up my game?

Think you played hand 2 pretty badly. Good chance of there being a boat out with TWO oppos putting money in on the flop and I think you should def. either raise the flop or bet the turn, pretty weak. Playing scared money maybe?

Hand 3 is a pretty draw-heavy board so unless they're Stars tightwads I'd just check it down and take my medicine.

Hand 4 I don't really see any need to bet the river unless there were some real donkish stations hovering around. Not much worse than your hand will pay off there in general.

When I was playing the upper levels, I noticed that the play did improve over the lower buying tables. The main improvements that I saw was the starting hand selection of opponents and their ability to handle aggression.

When big pots where being played, you could generally look at the hands and agree with the plays. You rarely saw someone giving up a freeroll with something like a top set on a made low board or similiar bad situation.

Looking back at the couple month long effort, I dont see the reason to play that high even if I was playing for money. I would multitable the PL 100s and below and remove the variance from the equation. My two cents worth.

Tom

on a related note, here's a hand i played today.

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $96.55
UTG+1: $93.45
MP1: $100.35
MP2: $0
MP3: $154.85
Kuso: $110.15
Button: $107.70
SB: $199.15
BB: $38

Pre-flop: (9 players) Kuso is CO with
UTG raises to $2, 3 folds, Kuso calls, 3 folds.

Flop: ($5.5, 3 players)
UTG bets $2.75, Kuso raises to $13.75.
Uncalled bets: $11 returned to Kuso.

Turn: : ($11, 2 players)


Results:
Final pot: $11

villain had a pfr% of about 1% over a few thousand hands. i put him squarely on AAxx or A2xx. when he CBed, i knew that it was unlikely that his other two cards hit this board, and i knew he had to fold to my raise if he didn't (i should add that villain is NOT a CS).

i realize that this is an extreme example, but my point is that some people are going to be able to play back at you if you: a) don't mix up your pf raises a lot, and b) be selective about your CBs. i can't recall what your FR pfr stats are (the images in your journal from calpoly aren't working at the moment), but it wouldn't surprise me if there are quite a few players who are willing to test you since you're pretty tight. this is doubly true since you can fold.

what do do about it? i think raising with position helps a lot. being willing to get it all in when you have some outs (maybe not nut-nut draws, but decent two-way draws an/or marginal made hands). being selective about when you CB (related to my previous comment) would probably help, too.


just some thoughts.